Should the government pay off student's debt?

[Dill]

(07-17-2023, 04:53 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: Why do you downplay the threat? This kind of reasoning is why we are here and China's the largest Navy in the world. They are fitting a third aircraft carrier and are expected to have 5-6 by 2030. We, however, have a ship-building problem. I watched an episode of 60 minutes a few weeks ago and our Navy is very concerned about China. (2) The State of the Navy; "Only in America" | 60 Minutes Full Episodes - YouTube It's a good watch and I urge you to take a look.

Did a little search to better answer your question: According to a 2021 report by the United States Naval Institute, China has the world’s largest navy, with more than 355 vessels in its fleet[color=var(--cib-color-foreground-accent-primary)]1[/color]. The United States Navy has approximately 490 ships in both active service and the reserve fleet; of these approximately 60 ships are proposed or scheduled for retirement, while approximately 90 new ships are in either the planning and ordering stages or under construction, according to the Naval Vessel Register and published reports

Now think about how fast their Navy has grown and our inability to maintain. Currently, we don't have the manpower to build ships and our costs are skyrocketing. 

Yo H-Dog. I share your anxiety over China. They are the U.S.' only full spectrum adversary; Iran, NK, and Russia are only military threats.

So I don't want to downplay China. I am just saying that, at this point in time, their little carriers are not to be compared with ours. They cannot protect themselves and cannot operate effectively away from land-based aircraft. They still don't have AWACS capability, as far as I know. U.S. carrier groups are true, "blue water" forces that can operate around the world. Plus the U.S. has generations of tactical experience deploying them in peace and war.

I'm also saying that a boat count is not the best way to judge naval power nowadays. One USS Zumwalt = how many of their destroyers? 

I do have concern on two fronts, though. A few years ago, a Chinese diesel sub briefly surfaced amidst a U.S. carrier group and then disappeared. Also, the Chinese shot down one of their own communications satellites. These two events worry me WAY more than China's greater number of inferior ships. And they worry me RIGHT NOW. Those presage real threats to our carrier groups, not little ski jump boats launching underpowered jet fighters.

Second front--over the next 20-30 years--by 2049 (Xi's stated goal) their Navy and military could compare with the U.S. But this is as much an economic and geopolitical battle as one of technological innovation and ship numbers. We need to be thinking in more comprehensive (i.e., not just technological terms), with planning in 10-year and longer increments, and make keeping our diplomatic advantage* a priority. 

On the positive side, there is nothing inevitable about Chinese military dominance. Their economy has to perform--and it might not. They have to match U.S. diplomatic power; not in sight at the moment. The U.S. still has so many geopolitical and diplomatic advantages. I don't see how China can turn this--except by U.S. unforced errors. Or own-goals--like pulling out of the TPP and creating a China Sea power vacuum for China to fill, forcing potential U.S. allies to accommodate China.


*This advantage includes not only many allies who allow us military bases and observations posts ringing China, but also those who are ready to lend massive economic weight to containment policies--so long as the US-led international systems seems preferable to a Chinese-led one. The rising number of dictatorships in the world threatens this system though.