Hunter Greene still leading team in strikeouts

[CJD]

(08-01-2023, 09:30 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: There is a huge difference between getting strikeouts, and FOCUSING on strikeouts. Even more so when you're relying on velocity to focus on strikeouts.

A big reason why all those Hall of Famers are littering the top-25 career strikeout list? Those guys stayed healthy to pitch a LOT of innings for a LOT of years. Nobody in the top 40 pitched less than 2,600 innings. That's 13 years of 200 innings. Guys throwing harder and harder resulting in shorter outings and more injuries will never be able to accumulate enough to be anywhere near the top-25 list before their arm stops working. (I guess Gerrit Cole might have a chance, but if he does it will be largely from the huge boost in Ks he got while cheating.)

Fangraphs only has velocity going back to 2002, but depending on the year in their career, their fastball has largely averaged around...
Scherzer: 93-94
Verlander: 92-95
Kershaw: 90-93


I guarantee you all of those guys could have thrown harder if they wanted to, but in order to do so they couldn't throw as many pitches, couldn't go as many innings, would sacrifice some control that would lead to more walks, and probably get hurt more leading to shorter careers.

Much like how I don't see any run-heavy QB thriving into their mid-30s, I don't think we're ever going to see the 98-100mph starters have long or healthy careers. You see a guy who can hit 100, and you just know it's an eventuality that they're going to have at least one TJ among other problems. 

Human bodies just aren't designed for that kind of punishment, and you'd be much better off with a sustainable low-90s with movement that you can actually locate, mixed with some offspeed pitches will let you throw 100-110 pitches a start, 180-220 innings a year, for 15 years.

That's a fair point. With Greene, I remember during the 2017 draft, he was noted as a special prospect because his 100 mph fastball was considered "easy" or "little effort" and that it did not seem to show intense strain on his arm like many players who could also throw 95 to 100 mph.

I don't know if that was just pre-draft mumbo jumbo or if it was actually based on something, but the unfortunate state of Hunter Greene is that if he dropped his fastball speed down to 90 to 93, He'd probably be a below average pitcher. His fastball is his only plus pitch at the moment (despite the advanced statistics you listed for it, I think that's the general consensus among coaches, fans and scouts.)

I think the issue is the batters have gotten exponentially better over time. If you introduced a 100 mph flame thrower to the deadball era, I don't think those players would even be able to see it, let alone hit it. 

Even Aroldis Chapman, when he arrived in 2015, his 100 mph fastball was considered extremely unique. And he used it, along with his wipeout slider, to be one of the most dominant relievers in baseball.

Now, it seems every team has a 100 mph slinger haha.

When I first started watching baseball in 2006, Aaron Harang was our opening day starter (for 5 years, I believe) and, bless his heart, his fastball was lucky to reach 90. He was good enough to get players out but I sometimes wonder how he'd fair in today's MLB where the bare minimum requirement seems to be 93 or 94 mph.