08-08-2023, 02:45 PM
(08-08-2023, 02:18 PM)Goalpost Wrote: We are basically at the mercy of the Fed at this point. They have likely paused in raising rates but some Fed governors have hinted they aren't finished. The upcoming monthly data will determine things. Employment and consumer prices seem to the key data they are looking at. I think the economy is stronger than they thought it would be, and they are worried that inflation...that last percent or two...they want it at 3 percent... remains stubborn to get to. A lot of people want them to reduce rates on behalf of housing and credit cards but those issues are likely to still remain longer.
The Fed has pretty much dried up their only tool for combatting inflation. JPOW does not want to admit he acted too late. They also softly committed to one more rate hike before the end of the year (but we know how that changes)
People point to the market as a key indicator for the economy but the market is literally being propped up by mega caps.
Using S&P 500 as an example, here's the top components:
https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/performance
https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500
AAPL, META, NVDA, etc all at the top...which is coincidentally all the companies that are experiencing ridiculous growth this last year.
The rest of the companies, not so much.....
AAPL has already started to dive. if the rest follow suit then it could get rough.
I like my money as most people do...so I'm obviously hoping for the soft landing....I have extremely low confidence it'll happen.
