Reds August 2023 thread

[*ochocincos*]

(08-29-2023, 02:46 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It's about 25 innings more than he has ever pitched before. He was a relief pitcher in college his first 3 years until 2021, so this is only his 3rd year of being a starting pitcher.

Also remember his very first start he went 105 pitches and they were saying "this is his first career start where he's thrown 100 or more pitches" and then he went 100+ pitches 7 times in his first 12 starts in the majors. So even if it is an equal number of innings each are a much higher load on the arm.

So you have a recently converted relief pitcher pitching the most innings he's ever thrown, throwing the most pitches he's ever thrown, in his rookie season in MLB where it's much more stressful innings and pitches on a 1-to-1 basis. It's not really surprising he hit a wall, and more surprising that the Reds did nothing to plan and prepare to try to delay it.

I've heard in the past that ~40 innings is generally the high limit on how much you want to increase a guy's career high innings by in a single year, but ultimately if a guy's body is trying to tell him to stop, then you can absolutely burn him up by ignoring what your own body is telling you. If you're losing velocity, control, and movement, your shoulder and elbow are trying to send you a message and you should always listen because not listening is the road to TJ or even worse, shoulder surgery.

(08-29-2023, 04:44 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: As an add-on to my previous post, I will say that I think Abbott is a bit of a victim of a problem in our minor league system. Our pitchers just aren't being properly prepared to perform for a season in the major leagues...

In the minors in 2023 Abbott averaged about 5.1 IP per start.
In the minors in 2022 Abbott averaged about 4.2 IP per start.

In the minors in 2022 Ashcraft averaged about 4.1 IP per start.
In the minors in 2021 Ashcraft averaged about 5.0 IP per start.

In the minors in 2021 Greene averaged about 5.0 IP per start.

In the minors in 2023 Williamson averaged about 4.1 IP per start.
In the minors in 2022 Williamson averaged about 4.2 IP per start.
In the minors in 2021 Williamson averaged about 5.1 IP per start. (In another team's minor league system.)

In the minors in 2021 Lodolo averaged about 4.0 IP per start.

- - - - - - -

They're setting them up for failure in the minors.

Luis Castillo averaged ~5.2 IP per start and had reached 130+ IP in a season in the minors.
Tyler Mahle averaged a hair over 6.0 IP per start and reached 144 IP in his last full season in the minors.
Johnny Cueto averaged over 5.2 IP per start and reached 160+ IP in his last full season in the minors.
Sonny Gray averaged just under 6.0 IP per start in his last season in the minors and reached 150+ IP in the minors a season before that.

The conditioning that Ocho talked about needs to take place in the minors so that they are prepared for it when they get to the majors. If they're only used to throwing 100 innings a year at 4.2 innings per start (I don't have pitch counts for their minors, but I assume it's nowhere near 100+), it's no wonder they can't come up to the majors and throw 180 innings at 6 innings a start and routinely go 100+ pitches per start.

When Tyler Mahle is the best homegrown pitcher your franchise has developed in the minors since Johnny Cueto debuted 15 years ago, you have an organizational issue.

Thanks for the background.

I did not know Abbott was a reliever originally.

I agree he needs to be working on growing his innings, and ideally it would have been in the minors.
I just would hate to see the Reds' best pitcher this year get shut down due to innings limitation, especially when there aren't any real decent options to replace him.
Maybe Phillips could get called up and take over Abbott's remaining starts (assuming he actually needs to be and will be shut down before season's end).