Forget Politics, are we heading for a recession

[Mike M (the other one)]

(09-05-2023, 01:51 AM)GreenDragon Wrote: "tightening credit conditions" given as a reason on the first link. 

if you are looking for the sign, it's in the third one.

"There is a key differentiating factor, Rosenberg said, that will indicate whether the economy is on the path to a true soft landing or will end up in a recession: the interest rates on different kinds of Treasurys. The Treasury yield curve measures the different interest rates that are paid out on various bonds issued by the US government. Usually, the interest rate on short-dated Treasuries — bonds that pay investors in less than a year — are lower than yields on far-out bonds like the 10-year Treasury. But when that flips and interest rates on short-term Treasurys are higher than their long-term cousins — known as a yield-curve inversion — is a sure sign of a recession, Rosenberg said. That's because it's a sign that investors are worried about the economy's stability over the next few months and are seeking safety in long-term bonds. The yield and curve has been inverted since the end of last year. Since the 1960s, the indicator has a perfect track record of preceding recessions."


for a better explanation of that:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/07/yield-curve-inverted-the-lowest-since-1981-what-it-means-for-yo.html