09-05-2023, 07:27 PM
(09-05-2023, 02:31 AM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: if you are looking for the sign, it's in the third one.
I was going to say a "soft landing" has never been engineered, but I believe it has once or twice in the last 40 years.
A lot of traditional economic indicators seem to have broken after the 2008 financial crisis. We had a record long expansion, in years (but likely not in total growth). And then they papered over a recession during Covid.
We are again pretty highly levered, not unlike in 2008. Difference is that leverage may be more widespread as opposed to being concentrated [in the mortgage market]. But I think the recent banking stress shows we're on pretty fragile footing. So they are really trying to thread the needle for a "soft landing". My guess is we won't see anything as severe as 2008, but something akin to 2001 is a distinct possibility. There's a bubble in VC/Tech/SPAC that looks a lot like the old dotcom bubble.
I haven't looked at Uber in a while, but perfect example. There guidance had been, basically, that they'll never be profitable until their fleet is all self-driving cars. When you jack up interest rates like this, you're going to kill companies like that who have been propped up with easy money.
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