10-30-2023, 01:54 PM
(09-12-2023, 07:27 PM)QueenCity Wrote: I'd let him walk... if Burrow is who we think he is we can get similar production from a vet free agent. Or draft one in the 1st or 2nd round with the Bengals track record on WR I like our chances
Let him walk? Heck, no.
Look, we are gonna have a TON of cap room this off-season. Tons.
We do not know what the cap will be. Spotrac is estimating $240 mil. OTC is guessing $256 mil. Right now we have a rollover cap of over $12 mil. Spotrac is estimating our cap room at just under $71 mil. OTC at $84.47 mil.
Now, functionally, it is less than that, of course. That is for only 37 players, 2 of which are Harper & Maxwell. Assuming other MIN type guys fill those spots, we have 18 openings. We have 9 draft picks, and OTC has our draft pool value at just under $11 mil. So let's guestimate 9 openings with $60 mil/$73 mil left.
Of those openings, 5/6 are likely to be significant in terms of pay. 7 are starters, but Adomitis is a LS and will make min. WR2 (Higgins), WR3 (Boyd), RT (Jonah), NT (Reader), CB1 (Awuzie), and TE1 (Smith) are your starters that need replacing. DJ Turner has been starting for Chido and you can go ahead and pencil him in at CB1, I think. I would not rule out Chido returning, but we are not going to pay top dollar for him with Turner ready to go for way cheaper. For now, lets assume all we need at CB is depth.
That leaves 9 spots, but only 5 starters. Lets assume the backups average a little over a mil apiece ($1.25) amd allot 5 mil for 4 reserves. $55 mil/$68 mil to go get WR2, WR3, RT, NT, and TE1. It is a deep OT and WR draft, so let us assume we get at least 1 WR & OT in the first 3 rounds.
So let's pay Reader. He is foundational to me, at least for 2-3 more years. Say at $15 mil cap hit. Down to $40 mil/$53 mil. Tag Higgins. $20 mil? $20/$33 mil left for RT, WR3, TE1. And that is assuming we have not drafted that guy on Day 1-2 (Harrison, Coleman, Odunze, Nabers, Egbuka, Legette, & Franklin all seem possible R1 WRs, and Fashanu, Alt, Latham, Mims, Morgan, Suamataia, Guyton, Paul, Barton, Fautanu, and Fuaga R1-2 OTs, though some may move inside as pros).
At this point, retaining Boyd, Jonah, or Chido is within the realm. Or paying for TE1. All of them? No. But like last year, it will be a jigsaw puzle, if one guy wants the bag, he likely get the tag (like Bates) or we draft a replacement & retain the others.
But my working assumption is pay Reader & tag Tee (if he won't do a reasonable extension), and go from there. I mean, if an awesome Highins replacement falls in our lap on day 1, we could trade him later. Or move Chase inside. Or retain Boyd. Or some combo.
But letting him walk is terrible asset management, especially with the amount of cap room we have. Plus, we are trying to win a SB. Don't subtract talent unless you absolutely have to and/or have a replacement lined up.
