Is crime on the rise?

[Belsnickel]

(12-09-2023, 03:24 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: I've said it before, but it bears repeating.  You want an accurate gauge of the true crime rate, use homicides.  A dead body cannot be covered up or undercharged.  I get your focus on data, but when the data is deliberately corrupted it rather loses its relevance.  Much like Biden's "strong economy" the evidence of the every day lives of people rather trumps raw numbers.

And what we saw in 2022 was a trend back down after the pandemic and an expected continued drop for 2023 according to the article when it comes to homicides. So, according to your metric, the crime rate is falling.

As for the strong economy analogy, what holds up with that is that perceptions of every day people don't often match reality. The economy actually is strong right now, but people don't feel it because a strong economy doesn't always equate to more money for the average person plus that isn't the messaging they are getting.

I get that there are problems with crime data. In fact, the lack of reporting is a big focus on the podcast. However, it's what we have to go with. What's more unreliable than underreported data? Anecdotal evidence. I can take underreported data and use modelling to create a more accurate picture with a margin of error. Anecdotes are far more subjective and unreliable.