12-19-2023, 07:16 PM
(12-19-2023, 03:11 PM)Science Friction Wrote: I took a really deep dive into the Bengals playoff probabilities. I studied an app that calculates a teams playoff chances based on the results of other games. I took every game that would have any effect on the Bengals from now through week 17 and picked a winner and loser in each case. In each case, I made the outcome to be the worst possible scenario for our Bengals. In other words, the teams I picked to win lessened the likelihood of the Bengals playoff hopes. If we beat Pittsburgh, lose to KC, and everything thing else goes into the crapper for us, we will have a slightly less than 1 in 4 chance of making the playoffs going in to Week 18.
But don't despair, Bengals fans, mathematicians don't stop at Week 17. I have some good news. A win over the Browns in Week 18 and our chances go back up to about where they are right now--- 37%. Our playoff hopes will be determined by the outcomes of four games in week 18. Here are those games:
1. Jaguars at Titans
2. Texans at Colts
3. Bills at Dolphins
4. Broncos at Raiders
The Bengals want the home team to win in each of these games(Assuming the Texans beat the Browns this week). Now, there are 16 combinations(2^4) of how those four games can go. For example , if G= Good 4 Bengals ; B= Bad 4 Bengals , then GGGG means all four went in the Bengals favor. GGBB means the first two went the Bengals way but the last two did not. Of these 16 combinations, six of them gets the Bengals into the playoffs: GGGG , GGGB, GGBG, GBGG, BGGG, and BBGG. Notice that five of the six require three of the four games going the Bengals way. Only one, the BBGG, requires just two of the four going in favor of our beloved Black & Orange. A Dolphins win at home over the Bills and a Raiders win in Vegas over the Broncos would get it done, regardless of what happens in the other two.
What does this all mean? Short of winning out, the Bengals are going to, most certainly, needs some help in Week 18. The good news is, none of those four games would require a major upset of any sort. Those are all games that could go either way. Also, the teams the Bengals would be rooting for in that quad of games will all be the home teams(unless the Browns beat the Texans this week, in which case we'd want the Texans to win at the Colts in Week 18).
In conclusion ,unless all three of those early games go the Bengals way, it's gonna likely come down to the Broncos at Raiders in determining the Bengals fate. After the Bengals win in the Jungle in Week 18, take off your Bengals gear and put on the Black & Silver paint and become a Raiders fan for three hours!!!
Btw, in my scenario I projected the Texans over the Browns this week. This results in us needing a Colts win at home in Week 18. If, however, the Browns beat the Texans this week, then we will need to root for the Texans to beat the Colts in week 18. I personally like the former scenario better than the latter. I want to be rooting for all four of those home teams in Week 18.
Questions/ comments?
Good stuff, personally I hope the Broncos start losing, could happen against the Raiders.
