01-08-2024, 06:23 PM
I am gonna refrain from a dissertation on the offseason.....for the moment. Broadly speaking, I think the FO (correctly) thinks this team is a contender with a healthy Burrow. That SF game proves it. And the fight we showed without him (and Reader) also is proof positive.
Having said that, there are issues. The run D was porous even before Reader went down. Aside from Hendrickson, the pass rush was mediocre. Dax Hill struggled to fill Bates' shoes. Scott was poor before being replaced by the much better Battle. After a promising start, Turner struggled. The LBs were not up to 2022 level. Hilton was VERY good, though. Heading into FA, you can make a case for help at NT, DT, CB, S, and DE. Plus the entire backup LB corps are FAs (OK, Harper isn't, he played 1 snap). And that is just on D.
On O, the ability & commitment to run must get better. The OL was mediocre again. Tee & Boyd are FA's and did not have great seasons. And the entire TE room are FA's. We have a lot of holes to fill in FA & the draft. Heck, our rookie punter was probably the worst in the league.
All is not lost, certainly. Our QB1, WR1, DE1 troika remains amongst the best in the league, if not THE best. Brown was an upgrade over Jonah at LT. Karras had a good year. Volson got better late. Browning proved to be a legit QB2 and is going nowhere as a ERFA. Hudson was a legit find and is a RFA I believe. Brown, Jones, & Iosivas all showed enough flashes that I feel good they can contribute (but not star/start) going forward. And we have a lot of cap room. We'll need it.
We were 1-5 in the division and 8-3 outside of it. Despite Burrow missing the last 7 games and being hobbled the first 4. But we have to get stouter up front or Balt, Pitt, & Cle just push us around. And we have to make them pay for blitzing more.
In FA, I try to sign Tee long term to get that yearly cap hit as low as I can. I am willing to go higher in terms of years and guarantees to do it. I think the tag is $23 mil, and I will if I have to, but I'd prefer something around $20 per long term.
I am assuming next year is mostly a wash for Reader, but maybe he can come back late on. He is still one of the best run stoppers in football & I do not see anything remotely resembling him on our roster, nor in the draft outside of Sweat. I am willing to go 3 years, $25-$30 mil. Maybe a touch higher if he can play most of next. Hopefully lower, but that may be a pipe dream.
Generally, I do not mind paying up for difference makers (Higgins, Reader), but not so much for average-ish players. We had 4 starters who rated at 80+ at PFF: Chase (85.3), Hendrickson (82.3), Battle (82.5), and Reader (82.2). This was Tee's worst year via PFF at 72.1 (1st year below 75), but that was still #3 on offense behind Chase & Burrow (77.9). Jonah was our 4th best OL and (barely) rated higher than Volson. He started strong & faded & gets dominated within the division. I think we can land a good OT at #18 (Fuaga, Mims, Guyton). I am ready to move on and reinvest that Jonah $$ in a better player.
It is a risk because our OT depth is not great.
I am more agnostic on Boyd and Chido. If PFF is your thing, Boyd had a poor year at 59.5. His last 4 were 71.1, 72.6, 75.8, 73.0. Most career drops. Had some big catches as well. Blip or portent of coming attractions? Some guys don't play as well as FAs. Higgins didn't.
Chido had his worst year as a Bengal via PFF, 62.6 this year, 69.9 last, 83.4 in 2021. How much of that is coming off injury and how much new normal? Turner looked good early and wobbly late.
I'd rate them as Highins & Reader first. Then Chido. Then Boyd. Then Jonah. But I try to land a big FA stud at DT before even thinking about Chido/Boyd/Jonah. If I whiff at DT in FA, I might turn my eyes to big time secondary or TE help, though I doubt we would pay up for a TE (Schultz) or a S (Winfield). Corner maybe. If I strike out on FA help, then I circle back to our other 3 big ones.
Even if Chido/Boyd stay, I can still see more CB/WR help incoming, but it would be Day 3 guys instead of Day 2. We could upgrade Irwin and need to replace Ivey. I think we will bet on Turner & Dax Hill improving.
Having said that, there are issues. The run D was porous even before Reader went down. Aside from Hendrickson, the pass rush was mediocre. Dax Hill struggled to fill Bates' shoes. Scott was poor before being replaced by the much better Battle. After a promising start, Turner struggled. The LBs were not up to 2022 level. Hilton was VERY good, though. Heading into FA, you can make a case for help at NT, DT, CB, S, and DE. Plus the entire backup LB corps are FAs (OK, Harper isn't, he played 1 snap). And that is just on D.
On O, the ability & commitment to run must get better. The OL was mediocre again. Tee & Boyd are FA's and did not have great seasons. And the entire TE room are FA's. We have a lot of holes to fill in FA & the draft. Heck, our rookie punter was probably the worst in the league.
All is not lost, certainly. Our QB1, WR1, DE1 troika remains amongst the best in the league, if not THE best. Brown was an upgrade over Jonah at LT. Karras had a good year. Volson got better late. Browning proved to be a legit QB2 and is going nowhere as a ERFA. Hudson was a legit find and is a RFA I believe. Brown, Jones, & Iosivas all showed enough flashes that I feel good they can contribute (but not star/start) going forward. And we have a lot of cap room. We'll need it.
We were 1-5 in the division and 8-3 outside of it. Despite Burrow missing the last 7 games and being hobbled the first 4. But we have to get stouter up front or Balt, Pitt, & Cle just push us around. And we have to make them pay for blitzing more.
In FA, I try to sign Tee long term to get that yearly cap hit as low as I can. I am willing to go higher in terms of years and guarantees to do it. I think the tag is $23 mil, and I will if I have to, but I'd prefer something around $20 per long term.
I am assuming next year is mostly a wash for Reader, but maybe he can come back late on. He is still one of the best run stoppers in football & I do not see anything remotely resembling him on our roster, nor in the draft outside of Sweat. I am willing to go 3 years, $25-$30 mil. Maybe a touch higher if he can play most of next. Hopefully lower, but that may be a pipe dream.
Generally, I do not mind paying up for difference makers (Higgins, Reader), but not so much for average-ish players. We had 4 starters who rated at 80+ at PFF: Chase (85.3), Hendrickson (82.3), Battle (82.5), and Reader (82.2). This was Tee's worst year via PFF at 72.1 (1st year below 75), but that was still #3 on offense behind Chase & Burrow (77.9). Jonah was our 4th best OL and (barely) rated higher than Volson. He started strong & faded & gets dominated within the division. I think we can land a good OT at #18 (Fuaga, Mims, Guyton). I am ready to move on and reinvest that Jonah $$ in a better player.
It is a risk because our OT depth is not great.
I am more agnostic on Boyd and Chido. If PFF is your thing, Boyd had a poor year at 59.5. His last 4 were 71.1, 72.6, 75.8, 73.0. Most career drops. Had some big catches as well. Blip or portent of coming attractions? Some guys don't play as well as FAs. Higgins didn't.
Chido had his worst year as a Bengal via PFF, 62.6 this year, 69.9 last, 83.4 in 2021. How much of that is coming off injury and how much new normal? Turner looked good early and wobbly late.
I'd rate them as Highins & Reader first. Then Chido. Then Boyd. Then Jonah. But I try to land a big FA stud at DT before even thinking about Chido/Boyd/Jonah. If I whiff at DT in FA, I might turn my eyes to big time secondary or TE help, though I doubt we would pay up for a TE (Schultz) or a S (Winfield). Corner maybe. If I strike out on FA help, then I circle back to our other 3 big ones.
Even if Chido/Boyd stay, I can still see more CB/WR help incoming, but it would be Day 3 guys instead of Day 2. We could upgrade Irwin and need to replace Ivey. I think we will bet on Turner & Dax Hill improving.
