01-10-2024, 05:49 PM
I think we approach it thru the lens of trying to win a SB next year AND improving upon our problem areas.
Problems first.
1) Defense: inexperienced/poor secondary play led to a LOT of big plays.
2) Defense: Poor run defense, even with Reader.
3) Defense: Not much pass rush outside of Trey, especially on the interior.
4) Offense: Burrow's injury hampered the O early and did not help late. Too one dimensional.
5) Offense: TE play sucked.
6) Offense: OL mediocre.
7) Offense: WR drops.
8) Special teams: Punter stunk
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9) FA holes: WR2, WR3, RT, TE, NT.
10) FA upgrades?: P, CB, S
Some of this can get solved without a new signings. Burrow being healthy and Browning being marginally competent help solve the #1 problem for the O. Hopefully ZT learned a lot in terms of philosophy & playcalling.
The #1 problem on D was poor secondary play. Chido coming off injury was subpar. Turner took his lumps as the year wore on. Scott was poor. And Dax made a lot of mental mistakes despite some flashes. And now with Ivey out, who played very well in limited snaps, we are down 2 corners. Battle coming in for Scott stabilized SS. If you are believer in Hill & Turner improving, this becomes a depth issue. If not, then this is flasing light bad and needs addressed.
But to fix everything else, we need FA/draft help.
Again, for me, Higgins & Reader are difference makers. You don't let those walk unless you have to, and we don't have to given we have a ton of cap space. We should have more info on the DJs' injury rehab process by March, but if it likely he can play by midseason, but due to Reader's health issues,,we likely still need a NT and we have our DT issues.
I totally let Jonah walk and draft an OT at #18. This class is so deep there should be one there.
We have $70 mil in cap space, but it is functionally more like $55.
I try to lock up my cheap/min FA's quickly. Adomitis & Browning. Drew Sample. Irwin. T. Williams. Ford. Scharping. Bailey & Bachie. Tupou. Even Wilcox. ADG & Hudson might cost a smidge more. If I have to cut one of them later, there will likely be little to no dead cap, and a good chance I can PS them.
I figure Tee + Reader is $30-$35 mil. So I have around $20-$25 mil left. I am gonna try to land a real difference maker with that money. DT 1st. If I whiff there, then secondary (deep S FA class), and maybe TE/WR/CB next.
If I cannot land a difference maker with that cash, I circle back to Chido & Boyd.
Day 2 draft is what I have open most, most likely WR (great class), DT/NT (good class), TE (thin class), or CB/S.
I draft that kid from Iowa, 5th round if I have to, to fix P. I'd also explore trading up in Rd 2 if I really want a guy (Sweat, Murphy, Legette). We have 9 picks, not sure they all make the squad, I am willing to burn 1-2 to move up on Day 2.
If I have to cut salary, Scott & Carman could save me clise to $3 mil. If I land a big fish DT, I might try to trade BJ Hill, but with Reader hurt, I'd try really hard not to.
By the numbers:
Signed roster locks:
Starters = 17/25. Burrow, Mixon, Chase, O. Brown, Volson, Karras, Cappa; Hendrickson, BJ Hill, Hubbard, Wilson, Pratt, CTB, Hilton, Battle, D. Hill; McPherson.
Adomitis is an ERFA, so he will be back. Make it 18.
Higgins & Reader would get to 20. P is a draft/UDFA issue. 21. OT in RD1 makes 22. If you believe in Turner is 23 with only WR3 and TE.
That's 23 guys. Signed reserves who I think are locks (or close) and not mentioned: C. Brown, Iosivas, C. Jones; C. Sample, Murphy, Ossai. Carter is a decent bet, 30.
FA's I'd think we can re-sign easily: Browning, T. Williams, Irwin, D. Sample, Wilcox, Ford, Scharping, Tupou, Bailey, Bachie. That's 38. ADG & Hudson could be trickier, and a touch pricier, 40.
Signed guys probable to iffy for 53: Scott, Anderson, Carman, D. Smith, Evans, Tufele, Harper. That's 47.
Two more FA signings + 8 more picks is 57. And that is not counting sime of the other signed/future's guys (Cochran, Maxwell, etc). Point being, I think we van burn a pick or two to move up if we have to.
Anyway, the questions/issues are now NT while Reader hurt, DT pass rush, TE1, WR3, another corner, and maybe S depth. Worst case, that is 6.
Day 2 of the draft can take 2. Your FA cash should be able to land you 1-2 of the others. Day 3 draft plus holding your nose on the others may have to happen (hope for Dax/Turner improvement, start Tupou while Reader recovers, live with Scott/Anderson as S depth, etc).
Problems first.
1) Defense: inexperienced/poor secondary play led to a LOT of big plays.
2) Defense: Poor run defense, even with Reader.
3) Defense: Not much pass rush outside of Trey, especially on the interior.
4) Offense: Burrow's injury hampered the O early and did not help late. Too one dimensional.
5) Offense: TE play sucked.
6) Offense: OL mediocre.
7) Offense: WR drops.
8) Special teams: Punter stunk
---------------
9) FA holes: WR2, WR3, RT, TE, NT.
10) FA upgrades?: P, CB, S
Some of this can get solved without a new signings. Burrow being healthy and Browning being marginally competent help solve the #1 problem for the O. Hopefully ZT learned a lot in terms of philosophy & playcalling.
The #1 problem on D was poor secondary play. Chido coming off injury was subpar. Turner took his lumps as the year wore on. Scott was poor. And Dax made a lot of mental mistakes despite some flashes. And now with Ivey out, who played very well in limited snaps, we are down 2 corners. Battle coming in for Scott stabilized SS. If you are believer in Hill & Turner improving, this becomes a depth issue. If not, then this is flasing light bad and needs addressed.
But to fix everything else, we need FA/draft help.
Again, for me, Higgins & Reader are difference makers. You don't let those walk unless you have to, and we don't have to given we have a ton of cap space. We should have more info on the DJs' injury rehab process by March, but if it likely he can play by midseason, but due to Reader's health issues,,we likely still need a NT and we have our DT issues.
I totally let Jonah walk and draft an OT at #18. This class is so deep there should be one there.
We have $70 mil in cap space, but it is functionally more like $55.
I try to lock up my cheap/min FA's quickly. Adomitis & Browning. Drew Sample. Irwin. T. Williams. Ford. Scharping. Bailey & Bachie. Tupou. Even Wilcox. ADG & Hudson might cost a smidge more. If I have to cut one of them later, there will likely be little to no dead cap, and a good chance I can PS them.
I figure Tee + Reader is $30-$35 mil. So I have around $20-$25 mil left. I am gonna try to land a real difference maker with that money. DT 1st. If I whiff there, then secondary (deep S FA class), and maybe TE/WR/CB next.
If I cannot land a difference maker with that cash, I circle back to Chido & Boyd.
Day 2 draft is what I have open most, most likely WR (great class), DT/NT (good class), TE (thin class), or CB/S.
I draft that kid from Iowa, 5th round if I have to, to fix P. I'd also explore trading up in Rd 2 if I really want a guy (Sweat, Murphy, Legette). We have 9 picks, not sure they all make the squad, I am willing to burn 1-2 to move up on Day 2.
If I have to cut salary, Scott & Carman could save me clise to $3 mil. If I land a big fish DT, I might try to trade BJ Hill, but with Reader hurt, I'd try really hard not to.
By the numbers:
Signed roster locks:
Starters = 17/25. Burrow, Mixon, Chase, O. Brown, Volson, Karras, Cappa; Hendrickson, BJ Hill, Hubbard, Wilson, Pratt, CTB, Hilton, Battle, D. Hill; McPherson.
Adomitis is an ERFA, so he will be back. Make it 18.
Higgins & Reader would get to 20. P is a draft/UDFA issue. 21. OT in RD1 makes 22. If you believe in Turner is 23 with only WR3 and TE.
That's 23 guys. Signed reserves who I think are locks (or close) and not mentioned: C. Brown, Iosivas, C. Jones; C. Sample, Murphy, Ossai. Carter is a decent bet, 30.
FA's I'd think we can re-sign easily: Browning, T. Williams, Irwin, D. Sample, Wilcox, Ford, Scharping, Tupou, Bailey, Bachie. That's 38. ADG & Hudson could be trickier, and a touch pricier, 40.
Signed guys probable to iffy for 53: Scott, Anderson, Carman, D. Smith, Evans, Tufele, Harper. That's 47.
Two more FA signings + 8 more picks is 57. And that is not counting sime of the other signed/future's guys (Cochran, Maxwell, etc). Point being, I think we van burn a pick or two to move up if we have to.
Anyway, the questions/issues are now NT while Reader hurt, DT pass rush, TE1, WR3, another corner, and maybe S depth. Worst case, that is 6.
Day 2 of the draft can take 2. Your FA cash should be able to land you 1-2 of the others. Day 3 draft plus holding your nose on the others may have to happen (hope for Dax/Turner improvement, start Tupou while Reader recovers, live with Scott/Anderson as S depth, etc).
