01-14-2024, 07:21 PM
(01-14-2024, 04:03 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: After factoring in futures contracts as placeholders and accounting for tag/tenders (Higgins, Browning, Adomitis) the Bengals will have 51 players under contract...and adding an estimated 3.25m for draft picks, they will have an effective cap space number of about 34.4m.
Let's say they re-sign the 9 players listed below 1 year deals (estimated by using similar previous signings). These contracts replace the placeholders for a net cap hit of 15.15m...meaning they will still be at 51 contracts and have around 19.25m in remaining cap space.
RB- Trayveon Williams 1 yr- 1.225m
WR- Trenton Irwin 1 yr- 1.28m
TE- Tanner Hudson 1 yr- 1.2m
TE- Drew Sample 1 yr- 1.275m
G- Max Scharping 1 yr- 1.3m
DT- DJ Reader 1 yr- 12m
LB- Akeem Davis-Gaither 1 yr- 2.125m
LB- Joe Bachie 1 yr- 1.205m
LB- Markus Bailey 1 yr- 1.175m
*I used a low-end estimate for Reader just because of the uncertainty with the injury and the risk of signing him to more than one year right now. I feel like the high end would be something in the 13-14m range.
I am not a cap guy, but let me see if I have this all correct. And someone yell at me if I have it wrong. I think the OP has it mostly right but not completely so. Or not complete.
I. General Principles:
A. How the cap is calculated differs in the off-season (March to start of the season) to the regular season.
It has to. You have 90 guys under contract in camp.
A. Regular season: everything counts. 53 man roster, Practice squad, IR, PUP.
Subject to Cap + Rollover - Dead Money +/- Adjustments.
B. Off-Season: Only the top 51 count.
As long as your top 51 are under your adjusted cap, you can sign anyone you want. Now, of course, once the season starts, your PS/IR/PUP guys are gonna count. So they are a factor.
However, during the off-season, they don't actually constrain signings (if they are out of the top 51). RFA's & ERFA's who get a tender offer count vs the cap. As do players who are Franchise Tagged. And unsigned draft picks. UFA's do not count vs the cap.
https://russellstreetreport.com/salarycap/nfl-salary-cap-faqs/
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II. Showing Our Work:
A. Bengals Cap Numbers for 2024:
1. Estimated 2024 NFL Cap: $242,500,000
2. Plus 2023 Bengals Rollover: $10,766,741
3. Minus 2024 Dead Money: ($1,775,689)
4. 2024 Adjustments: $0
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Best Guess 2024 Bengals Cap: $251,491,052
B. Signed Starters: $154,255,691 (19).
For our purposes here, let's assume that no one who played starters snaps last year is usurped or cut. For me, that means: Burrow, Mixon, Chase, O. Brown, Volson, Karras, Cappa; Hendrickson, BJ Hill, Hubbard, Wilson, Pratt, CTB, Turner, Hilton, Battle, D. Hill; McPherson, & Robbins. 19 guys.
Those guys make: $154,255,69. Cap room is down to $97,235,361.
C. Safe Reserves: $13,398,174 (+10 = 29).
Not saying we couldn't release any of these guys, but they are all on rookie deals except for one, and he is a vet min: C. Brown, Iosivas, C. Jones, C. Sample; Murphy, Ossai, Carter, Ivey, J. Davis, Anderson). 10 guys.
Those guys make $13,398,174 combined. Cap space down to $83,837,187. That is with 29 guys signed.
D. Reserve Iffy = $13,680,884 (+8 = 37).
These are guys who were on the 53 at some point last year. Except for Tufeke & Scott, they barely played. And those two had the lowest PFF scores of any player who is signed for 2024. I think these guys are iffy to make the roster: Evans, Carman, D. Smith, T. Hill, Tufele, Bell, Harper, Scott. 8 guys.
They make $13,005,884. Top 51 cap space down to $70,831,303. 37 guys total.
The $70 mil figure that was thrown around after the season? This right here is where it comes from. Now, of course, the OP is right, functionally, we don't have $70 mil. That is with only 37 guys signed. Once the season starts, the PS & IR will count vs the cap, you have to take that into account.
Now, of course, some of the 37 guys above COULD get cut or restructured. But 9utside of the higher paid starters, the only guys who'd have a significant cap inpact would be Scott & Carman, and even then significant is pushing it. Scott makes $4.3 mil, but has $2 mil Dead Cap. Once you pay his replacement, you are talking $1.3 mil ish in savings. Carman makes $2.4 almost, but with almost $700k dead cap. Once you pay a replacement, you are looking at $700k? Maybe $2 mil between them?
E. Practice Squad/Future's: $9,225,000 (+11 = 48).
These players never made the 53 last year, and were either practice squad players who signed Future's contracts recently (Jackson, Lassiter II, Pryor, Kirkland, Gilliam, Gunter, D. Davis, Heyward, George) or guys who were ueaded to the PS and spent the year on IR (Cochran, Maxwell).
They are, most likely, just placeholders for the FA's/draft picks we sign/re-sign that will make the team. As such, their placeholder number will be lower than the guys we actually keep in most instances.
Their combined salary of $9,225,000 reduces our top 51 cap (offseason cap) to $61,606,303 with 48 players signed.
Before anyone panicks & thinks these guys will cost us $15 mil off our cap in the regular, as Practice Squad guys, they won't. PS salaries are MUCH lower. Guys with 2 years or fewer (all the 11 guys above) make $12,500 per week. 18 weeks is $225k. Older vets can make more (16,100 to 20,600 per week), but only 6 spots are available to them. If those 6 are all taken by max vets, the cap hit for the PS is $4.45 mil. That number is a factor once the seadon starts, but not when signing FAs (though a release/renegotiation would have to happen if you are over).
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F. Functional Space after tenders (Higgins, Browning, Adomitis).
And I think that is how the OP gets to $34 mil. Tee's tender is $21.1. The tenders for our ERFA's (Browning & Adomitis) are 915k each. Those are both gimmee's. That is $23 mil at 51 players. $38.5 mil in cap space left.
Assuming our 3 tenders, that is the offseason amount we have to work with entering FA. Practically, less, since the PS number ($4.45 max), the placeholders future's guys value will be less than actual, and the fact we are at 51, not 53, one of which will be a 1st rounder at $2.6 mil.
Of course, on the other side, Tee's number could be lower if a deal gets done, the PS number could be lower if we go younger, and we might renegotiate or release a higher paid player or two.
I get $38.5 mil after tenders. $61 at the moment. But $35 at 53 (1st rounder + 1 to get to 53) is spot on. And then take off the PS $$$ for the actual amount. Say, $4 mil.
