01-31-2024, 06:51 PM
This is a much different election dynamic than the Ross Perot days. Very few street level Dems will tell you that they fervently love Biden being the candidate. Al lot of Republicans will also tell you that they have apprehensions about Trump. None of that matters in this scenario. This election is about whether you love Trump or hate him. Plain and simple. Nobody with any understanding or interest in party politics is going to break ranks in 2024 to make a point. They just want to make sure the other guy loses. This is more true than ever.
Manchin has zero shot. RFK has zero shot. Even campaigning as spoilers would be a waste of time and money. People aren't stupid. They know a Manchin vote is a vote for Trump if it came to be. Also, RFK as a VP is highly unlikely to sway anyone to the left of Richard Nixon to vote for Trump. If RFK had that kind of sway, he wouldn't have run from the idea of a primary with Biden. They guy has almost no juice with anyone other than people who already support Trump.
Third party politics may be a fairer concept than the current system, but as it stands they are barely even viable spoilers. People are way too divided and dug in to stray from their tent. This isn't Bush V Gore.
The only candidate with any shot as a 3rd party option is the current (likely) Republican challenger. Trump could probably convince a large enough number of the MAGA folk to leave the GOP if he chose to do so. His hold on the ones who follow him is virtually unbreakable. He is their god moreso than their claimed actual god. Honestly, he could destroy that party if it suited him. But that's not what's happening. What we see is what we get. No reason to deceive ourselves.
Manchin has zero shot. RFK has zero shot. Even campaigning as spoilers would be a waste of time and money. People aren't stupid. They know a Manchin vote is a vote for Trump if it came to be. Also, RFK as a VP is highly unlikely to sway anyone to the left of Richard Nixon to vote for Trump. If RFK had that kind of sway, he wouldn't have run from the idea of a primary with Biden. They guy has almost no juice with anyone other than people who already support Trump.
Third party politics may be a fairer concept than the current system, but as it stands they are barely even viable spoilers. People are way too divided and dug in to stray from their tent. This isn't Bush V Gore.
The only candidate with any shot as a 3rd party option is the current (likely) Republican challenger. Trump could probably convince a large enough number of the MAGA folk to leave the GOP if he chose to do so. His hold on the ones who follow him is virtually unbreakable. He is their god moreso than their claimed actual god. Honestly, he could destroy that party if it suited him. But that's not what's happening. What we see is what we get. No reason to deceive ourselves.
