FA Signing Game

[Essex Johnson]

(02-11-2024, 04:18 PM)Isaac Curtis: The Real #85 Wrote: As a leader of the re-sign Reader crowd, I will break it down. The above list is a good start, and part of it. But I will start here: 

1) We have to inprove our run D to compete in the AFC North. Losing our best run defender, and one of the best in the league, is not a recipe for improved run defense in my book.

2) Reader is, by far, the best run stopping DT/NT type out there. Jones, Madubuike, Wilkins, & Williams are all pass rusher DTs starting next to a stouter guy. They all play the run well, but are not run-stoppers. They are BJ Hill upgrades, not Reader replacements. And landing one is extremely unlikely.

3) I think the injury pearl clutching is over the top. He has this injury before, on the other leg, and was fine the next year. And has already said rehab is going easier this time. 

4) $10-$12 mil average vs the cap over 3 years will be a bargain over the life of the deal. Reader is elite. If we can get him for cheaper, or structure Y1 to be incentive heavy to reflect the injury, I would expect. Y2 & Y3 we pay up, though.

5) Even if he misses some games early, as long as he is around for the business end of the season, that is what I care most about. 

6) We have the last place schedule for next year. A slow start is less likely, and easier to overcome. Even with all our problems this year, we pummeled SF when Burrow was healthy, were neck & neck in Baltimore with Jackson. Ein that game in Balt with healthy Joe, and we could win the division.

7) I still would not mind spending a Day2 or Day3 pick on DT/NT. Or in FA. But aside from Sweat/McKinley Jackson, and Rankins, there isn't much there. 3Ts are deeper in FA & draft. 

8) If you sign Reader, your hypothetical starters in the post-seadon are all set: Hendrickson, Reader, Hill, Hubbard, Wilson, Pratt, CTB, Turner, Hilton, Battle, D. Hill.

Sure, we could use better depth at DB & LB. And better interior pass rush. And I am counting on Turner & Hill to improve. Ditto Murphy. And we could upgrade Carter/Tupou/Tufele. And a starting NT type if DJ cannot go week 1. But those are temporary issues or issues outside of Reader. Rd3-Rd5 or cheaper FA issues.

9) We have other needs that can be filled with higher quality and cheaper guys in the draft. RT and WR3 are expensive in FA. It is one of the best OT classes in memory. And a deep WR class. Take OT & WR with 2 of our first 3 picks and save the FA $$ for elite/plus guys like Reader, Tee, and the DTs above. 

10) If we whiff on the elite DTs, then spread that last $20 mil around on starter level guys at other spots: 2-4 of RT, CB, S, NT/DT, TE. Even WR if good value. Signing Reader does not preclude that.

Here is what I think Bengals will do because of DT injury

1 draft a DT in early rounds
2. look for the FA for a DT on a 1 year contract,
3. wait and see on Reader recovery ( he could be out for a year which is a major issue when the injury came in Dec.), NO TEAM in their right mind is signing DT in offseason,
4. If they do sign him it will be in the 5 to 7 million range especially if he might only play 1/2 season and loaded with some incentive.