02-12-2024, 01:59 PM
(02-12-2024, 01:41 PM)CKwi88 Wrote: I'm sure the 49ers are paying a guy much more than I make to think about this, but I see absolutely no reason to take the ball with these overtime rules.I totally agree with this. Maybe the niners never even thought about the overtime scenario.
Your absolute best outcome is scoring a touchdown. Cool, you're up 7 and force the other team to tie. Or you get 3, which is nice, but even then the other team can win with a TD or force true sudden death. In that case it is decent because you get the first possession of sudden death.
However, you can also go three and out and potentially leave a short field where the opponent only has to score 3 to win the game. Or a fumble, or an interception or a bad snap or any other fluke to potentially lose the game on the spot.
I think it boils down in my mind it to the fact that you simply cannot, by definition of the overtime rules, win the game outright if you possess the ball first. If you put your defense out there you can win the game outright with a defensive score. You can put yourself in a high probability win scenario by forcing a turnover or a quick 3 and out and then needing only a field goal. You have a chance to block any potential kick. If your D gives up three you still can win the game on offense, and your offense has the benefit of playing with 4 downs the rest of the way. The team possessing the ball first almost HAS to take 3 if they can, making the play calling more conservative. And worst case scenario you're down seven and need to tie the game, but even then you have the benefit of knowing exactly what you need to do and having 4 downs.
Maybe there's an angle I'm not understanding here. But an oversimplification of probability is # of successful outcomes ÷ # of total outcomes. And I just see more successful outcomes putting your defense on the field first.
If you put a great quarterback in four down mode with no time management to consider, he'll carve you up most every time.
Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
