Biden and Trump at the border

[Belsnickel]

(03-12-2024, 07:50 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: You're one of the few people I'd take this information from at face value.  But this begs the question, why then the insane surge in border crossing under Biden?  Perceived weakness on the issue?

There is a perceived weakness on the issue; it is documented that the messaging of "open borders" from the GOP has trickled into Latin America and has influenced the decisions of some folks, but that isn't a huge factor. When Title 42 ended, the Biden administration put in place a process which increased the number of asylum seekers allowed in (which was pretty much nil during Title 42) and also ramped up border control efforts. So an increased number of contacts is partially explained from that alone. Partially. In addition, for us to deport undocumented immigrants, we have to send them to their home countries and sometimes their home country won't accept them. This is something many folks don't think about.

The biggest drivers, though, are just the shit conditions these people have in their home countries. This is going to get long and in the weeds and is based on readings I did a few months ago, so bear with me. Our current border control policies really rose from the early 80's. We saw the significant jump in border enforcement during this time. We also decided at one point that if we had undocumented immigrants in our prisons, why were we taking care of them? Back to their home countries with them! So, we shipped out so many people, including these criminals who had been in the notorious street gangs that I am sure you are all too familiar with. This is especially true of MS-13 in 1992, but others as well, I just know the MS-13 history most because my area has seen their presence for quite a while along with Sur 13.

So, during the 90's, we were shipping these gang members back to the countries whence they came and they were taking what they learned in the U.S. and started running the show in their home countries. This is one of the major contributing factors to the current crises in these countries because when we shipped these people back to their home countries they were not prepared for what was heading their way. The resulting scenario is the violence and increased economic instability of the region which is what these people are fleeing from. But why now? Well, as is the answer for most things right now: COVID. The pandemic made things worse in this regard and with our country coming out of the pandemic the strongest of all, that's going to draw people to us. Side note, it's the reason we are seeing a rise in undocumented Chinese immigrants, as well right now.

Now, here is where the end of Title 42 does impact things. People weren't going to make the journey if they knew their asylum claims wouldn't allow them into the country. Title 42 had to come to an end and "Remain in Mexico" was not something that was going to last. That all being said, IIRC, around 40% of asylum seekers are currently denied outright and deportation proceedings begin. The other ~60% meet the standard set by law that requires us to give them a more formal review. It is at this point that our law says they cannot be deported. They are allowed to remain in the country and get work authorization (this is why I say the "Remain in Mexico" policy was not likely to hold up to the statutory review). One of the parts of the bi-partisan border deal would have been to change the standard to the formal review and switch those percentages, making it so more than half of those seeking asylum would likely be turned away immediately. That in and of itself could have a cooling effect on the migratory flow.

Keep in mind with this that immigration policy is not my wheelhouse. I read up on it here and there because my area has a high Hispanic/Latino population including undocumented immigrants and has also been a refugee resettlement area for as long as I have been alive, so immigration policies impact my community about as much as any non-border community can be impacted.