Israel/Hamas War Superthread

[Dill]

(04-13-2024, 10:21 PM)samhain Wrote: Meanwhile, we got ourselves a new front in the war.  
Iran launched about 150 missiles/drones, which were mostly (according to reports) intercepted before hitting Isreali targets.
Damage may or may not be significant, but the change in protocol is.  Iran almost always attacks though the proxy of Hezbollah.  An all out state sanctioned attack is highly unusual.
Israeli will likely respond in kind, very likely disproportionately.  At this point, I'm unsure where this all ends.  My not-so-sure bet is that this is a very bad situation for Tehran.

I think it will be a bad situation for all of us.  20-30% of the world's total oil consumption goes through the Strait of Hormuz, including that for our allies and for China, which is not likely to sit back and watch it's oil supply restricted. A war with Iran will paralyze the world economy to some degree, depending on how severely it is pursued and for how long, and it will involve players well beyond the ME.

This is the first time Iran has directly attacked Israel, and probably had to, given the direct attack on its embassy which killed its diplomats.
We'd call that "terrorism" if Syria did it to the Israeli embassy in the US. An embassy is a special target, an attack on another country's home
soil, on still another country's home soil, and in violations of international convention protecting diplomats.

(04-13-2024, 10:53 PM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: Saw a comment saying Netanyahu is the wild card here. He could nuke Tehran.  
I sure hope not.
I have a hard time coming up with an ideal response. Where does the escalation stop? Nuclear Armageddon? Stupid ass religious war is like little kids fighting, who is going to get the last jab in?

I don't think he'll nuke Teheran--yet. 

But yes, Netanyahu is the wild card who makes it hard to de-escalate. 
I fear the embassy attack may have been an attempt to lever the US more directly into the conflict.
(Not claiming that; I'm just wondering why make a move which forces Iran to take a big risk.)

Right now his interests (staying in power, postponing an Oct 7 reckoning) may be at odds with Israel's national interest
--which is not in a wider war with Hezbollah and Iran. 

I'm betting both Iran and the US are back-channeling frantically to stop an expanded war right now.

This is not about religion so much as the existence of the ME states involved, or at least the leadership/government in each case.