Israel/Hamas War Superthread

[GMDino]

I fully realize this will be too nuanced for the hardliners, but I found it an interesting read and a fairly good take on the entire situation with Israel right now.

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-04-18/ty-article-magazine/from-gaza-to-iran-the-netanyahu-government-is-endangering-israels-survival/0000018e-f25f-daad-a3de-fe7ff5790000

Quote:From Gaza to Iran, the Netanyahu Government Is Endangering Israel's Survival

Israel is facing a historic defeat, the bitter fruit of years of disastrous policies. If the country now prioritizes vengeance over its own best interests, it will put itself and the entire region in grave danger

Yuval Noah Harari
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Apr 18, 2024

In the coming days Israel will have to make historic policy decisions, ones that could shape its fate and the fate of the entire region for generations to come. Unfortunately, Benjamin Netanyahu and his political partners have repeatedly proven that they are unfit to make such decisions. The policies they pursued for many years have brought Israel to the brink of destruction. So far, they have shown no regret for their past mistakes, and no inclination to change direction. If they continue to shape policy, they will lead us and the whole Middle East to perdition. Instead of rushing into a new war with Iran, we should first learn the lessons of Israel's failures over the past six months of war.


War is a military means for achieving political aims, and there is one key yardstick by which to measure success in war: Were the political aims achieved? Following the horrendous massacre of October 7, Israel needed to liberate the hostages and disarm Hamas, but these should not have been its only aims. In light of the existential threat posed to Israel by Iran and its agents of chaos, Israel also needed to deepen its alliance with Western democracies, strengthen cooperation with moderate Arab forces, and work to establish a stable regional order. However, the Netanyahu government ignored all these aims, and instead focused on revenge. It has failed to secure the release of all the hostages, and has not disarmed Hamas. Worse, it intentionally inflicted a humanitarian disaster on the 2.3 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and thereby undermined the moral and geopolitical basis for Israel's existence.


The humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and the worsening situation in the West Bank are inflaming regional chaos, weakening our alliances with Western democracies, and making it harder for countries like Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia to cooperate with us. Most Israelis have now focused their attention on Tehran, but even prior to the Iranian attack we preferred to turn a blind eye to what was happening in Gaza and the West Bank. Yet if we don't change our behavior toward the Palestinians, our hubris and vengefulness will inflict a historic calamity on us.

After six months of war, many of the hostages are still in captivity and Hamas is still on its feet, but the Gaza Strip is devastated, many thousands of its people have been killed, and most of its population are now famished refugees. Together with Gaza, Israel's international standing is also in ruins, and we are now hated and ostracized even by many of our former friends. If an all-out war breaks out with Iran and its proxies, to what extent can Israel count on the United States, the Western democracies and moderate Arab states to risk themselves for us, and provide us with vital military and diplomatic assistance? Even if such war is averted, how long can Israel survive as a pariah state? We don't have Russia's ample resources. Without commercial, scientific and cultural ties with the rest of the world, and without American arms and money, the most optimistic scenario for Israel is to become the North Korea of the Middle East.

Too many Israeli citizens deny or repress what is happening, as well as the reasons we find ourselves here. In particular, too many deny the severity of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza – which is why they cannot understand the severity of the diplomatic crisis we are facing. When they encounter reports about the devastation, carnage and hunger in Gaza, they claim it is fake news, or they find moral and military justification for Israel's behavior.

Netanyahu's war cabinet has lost control and could lead Israel into a regional war

Does Netanyahu really think Israel can take on Iran alone?

Those who rush to blame antisemitism for all our troubles should remember the first weeks of the war, when Israel enjoyed unprecedented international support. The American president, the French president, the German chancellor, the prime minister of Britain, and a long list of additional prime ministers, foreign ministers and other dignitaries visited Israel, and expressed their support for it in its fight to defeat and disarm Hamas. International aid came in the shape of weapons as well as words. Enormous amounts of military equipment were rushed to Israel. Arms exports from Germany to Israel, for example, rose 10-fold. Without that materiél, we could not have conducted the war in Gaza and Lebanon, and prepare for conflicts with Iran and its other proxies. Meanwhile, in the waters of the Red Sea and Indian Ocean, an international fleet assembled to fight the Houthis and keep open the commercial lane leading to Eilat and the Suez Canal.

Of equal importance, during most of its previous wars, Israel had to fight against the clock, too, since its allies forced it to agree to cease-fires within days or weeks. But given the murderous nature of Hamas, this time its allies gave Israel free rein for many months to conquer Gaza, liberate the Israeli hostages, change the situation in the Strip according to Israel's best judgment, and create a new order in the region.

The Netanyahu government wasted this historic opportunity, and also wasted the bravery and dedication of the soldiers of the Israel Defense Forces. The Netanyahu government failed to exploit its battlefield victories to reach an agreement on the release of all the hostages and to advance an alternative political order in Gaza. Instead, it decided to knowingly inflict on Gaza an unnecessary humanitarian disaster – and in so doing, inflicted on Israel an unnecessary political disaster. One by one, our allies have become horrified by what is happening in Gaza, and one by one, they are calling for an immediate cease-fire, and even for a weapons embargo on Israel. Moderate Arab countries whose interests dovetail with ours, and who are afraid of Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, have found it difficult to cooperate with us while we devastate Gaza. The Netanyahu government has managed to derail even our relations with the United States, as if we have an alternative source for arms and diplomatic backing. The younger generations in the United States, and around the world now see Israel as a racist and violent country that expels millions from their homes, starves entire populations, and kills many thousands of civilians for no better reason than revenge. The results will be felt not only in the coming days and months, but for decades into the future. Even during the worst moments of October 7, Hamas was nowhere near vanquishing Israel. But the ruinous policy of the Netanyahu government following October 7 has placed Israel in existential danger.

The Samson syndrome

The failure of the Netanyahu government during the war is not accidental. It is the bitter fruit of many years of disastrous policies. The decision to inflict on Gaza a humanitarian catastrophe resulted from a combination of three long-term factors: lack of sensitivity to the value of Palestinian lives; lack of sensitivity to Israel's international standing; and skewed priorities that ignored Israel's real security needs.

For many years Netanyahu and his political partners cultivated a racist worldview that accustomed too many Israelis to disregard the value of Palestinian lives. A direct line leads from the Hawara pogrom of February 2023 to the current humanitarian tragedy in Gaza. On February 26, 2023, two Israeli settlers were murdered while they were driving through Hawara, in the West Bank. In revenge, a settler mob torched houses, shops and cars in Hawara, and injured dozens of innocent Palestinian civilians, while the Israeli security forces did little or nothing to stop the outrage. Those who became accustomed to burning a whole town in revenge for the murder of two Israelis, took it for granted that it was acceptable to devastate the entire Gaza Strip in revenge for the atrocities of October 7.

There is no doubt that Hamas is a murderous organization that on October 7 committed heinous crimes. But Israel is supposed to be a democratic country, which even when confronted by such atrocities continues to respect international laws, protect basic human rights and abide by universal moral standards. This is why countries like the United States, Germany and Britain stood by us following October 7. Of course, democratic countries have the right – nay, the duty – to defend themselves, and in war it is sometimes essential to take very violent actions to achieve vital political aims. It seems, however, that many of the actions Israel took after October 7 were motivated by a thirst for revenge, or worse, by the hope that hundreds of thousands of Palestinians would be forced permanently out of Gaza.

For many years, Netanyahu and his allies also cultivated a vainglorious worldview that accustomed many Israelis to downplaying the importance of our relations with the Western democracies. In one recent election campaign, huge roadside posters declared "a leader from a different league" and showed Netanyahu smiling and shaking hands with a beaming Vladimir Putin. Who needs Washington and Berlin when the Israeli superpower has new friends in Moscow and Budapest? And if Putin is our new friend, why not act like Putin? Even today there are Israelis who look longingly at how Putin behaves – e.g., cutting off the ears of terrorists – and think Israel should learn from him. Needless to say, after October 7 Putin stabbed Netanyahu in the back, and Victor Orban didn't bother to visit. It was the liberals in Washington and Berlin who rushed to help Israel. But perhaps out of sheer inertia, Netanyahu keeps biting the hands that feed us. Israel's deepening international isolation, and the hatred being expressed toward Israel among academics, artists and young people is not only the product of Hamas propaganda – it is the product of Netanyahu's skewed priorities over the last 15 years.

For many years, Netanyahu and his political partners shaped an agenda that ignored not just the importance of our alliance with Western democracies, but also Israel's most profound security needs. Much has been written about what led to the debacle of October 7, and much more will be written. No doubt a prime minister cannot be held responsible for every small detail. But a prime minister is responsible for the most important thing – shaping the country's priorities. And Netanyahu's chosen priorities were calamitous. He and his partners preferred to consolidate the occupation rather than to secure our borders, so that the same leader who for years proved unable to evacuate a single illegal Israeli settlement in the occupied territories succeeded in a single day to evacuate the Israeli towns of Sderot in the south and Kiryat Shmona in the north, with their tens of thousands of inhabitants.

Worse yet, when Netanyahu formed his last government, he had to decide on which of Israel's many problems it should focus. Should Israel prioritize fighting Hamas, Hezbollah or Iran? After much thought, Netanyahu decided to fight the Supreme Court. If between January and October 2023, the Netanyahu government had given Hamas a quarter of the attention it gave to fighting the Supreme Court, the catastrophe of October 7 would have been prevented.

When after October 7, Netanyahu had to decide on the aims of the war, no wonder that security was again placed too low on the list of priorities. Israel obviously had to enter Gaza to disarm Hamas. But the war's long-term aim should have been to create a stable regional order that would keep Israelis safe for years. Such an order could be created only by strengthening the alliance between Israel and the Western democracies, and deepening cooperation with moderate Arab forces. Instead of cultivating these alliances and partnerships, the war aim Netanyahu chose was blind revenge. Like the eyeless Samson in the biblical Book of Judges, Netanyahu chose to collapse the roofs of Gaza on everyone's heads – Palestinians and Israelis – just to exact revenge.

Israelis know their Bible well, and love its stories. How is it that after October 7, we forgot Samson? His is the tale of a Jewish hero kidnapped to Gaza, where he was held in dark captivity by the Philistines, and severely tortured. Why didn't Samson become a symbol following October 7? Why don't we see his image everywhere, on stickers, graffiti and internet memes?

The answer is that Samson's message is too scary. "May I take vengeance," said Samson, "and let my soul perish with the Philistines." Since October 7, we have become so similar to Samson in so many ways – the hubris, the blindness, the vengeance, the suicide – that it is just too terrifying to remember the vainglorious hero who let his own soul perish just to get even with the Philistines.

The echo chamber

Following October 7, it was essential to fight and defeat Hamas, but this could have been done even without killing so many innocent civilians and without starving the civilian population. The IDF has achieved many victories on the fields of battle, giving it control over most areas of the Gaza Strip and the routes leading into it. Even if in the midst of combat it is sometimes difficult to separate civilians from combatants, what prevented Israel from flooding Gaza with aid? Some argue that inefficient distribution within Gaza, and theft by Hamas operatives, are what led to the images of starving children and of thousands of desperate people storming aid trucks. Even if those difficulties are real, Israel could have pushed so much food, medicine and other supplies into Gaza that no scale of mismanagement or theft would have resulted in hunger. After all, what can thieves do with stocks of food other than sell it to the population?

Conversely, if Israel found it difficult to deliver enough aid into Gaza, and since Egypt and other countries refused to host Palestinian refugees, Israel could have created safe havens for Palestinian civilians on Israeli territory near the Egyptian border, south of the Strip. Hundreds of thousands of women, children, elderly and sick refugees from Gaza could have found shelter in these safe zones. There, Israel could have made sure the refugees received all the basic necessities and were protected from attack, as long as the fighting in Gaza continued. This idea was suggested already in the first days of the war by Benny Morris, Benjamin Z. Kedar, and several other leading Israeli academics who foresaw the dangers ahead. Such a move would have fulfilled Israel's moral obligations, won it international approval, and simultaneously enabled the IDF to operate with greater ease within Gaza. It isn't too late to implement such a plan.

Netanyahu continues to promise Israelis "total victory," but the truth is, we are a step away from total defeat. Whatever could have been achieved by fighting – rebuilding domestic trust in the IDF following the October 7 debacle, rebuilding Israeli deterrence abroad, and eliminating most of Hamas' military capabilities – have already been achieved. Nothing more will be gained from continuing the war. It is a dangerous illusion to believe that one more victory, in Rafah, will bring about the collapse of Hamas, the release of all the hostages, and the surrender of Israel's many enemies. Every additional day of war only serves the purposes of Hamas and Iran, and intensifies Israel's international isolation.

Large parts of the Israeli public are blind to what is happening. For too many Israelis, time came to a stop half a year ago. Every day, our media is still full of updates from October 7, 2023, seemingly without taking notice that it is already April 2024. It is of course important to remember and investigate what happened in Israel on that cursed Saturday, but it is also important to know what is happening in Gaza right now. The entire world sees the horrific images coming out of the Strip, but too many Israeli citizens either dare not look or regard all such images as deceitful propaganda. The blindness of the public gives the government a free hand to continue its spree of destruction, which devastates not only Gaza, but also what remains of Israel's international standing and moral compass. How can we break the echo chamber that entraps us, and see what is really happening?

Divine voice

In history, it sometimes happens that entire populations are trapped in an echo chamber and lose touch with reality. It is particularly likely to happen during wars. For example, in early August 1945, when isolated Japan stood on the verge of defeat, the Japanese continued fighting for the victory promised them by the government and the media. Japanese who dared think otherwise were denounced as defeatist, severely punished and sometimes executed.

What broke the Japanese echo chamber were two atom bombs – one dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, the other on Nagasaki on August 9. In fact, even the atom bombs didn't suffice. Divine intervention was also required. For another week the citizens of Japan continued to believe in victory, until on August 15, 1945, they turned on their radios, and heard a divine voice talking to them.

For many Japanese, Emperor Hirohito was a living god. Hitherto, he had never spoken to them directly. No person outside of his inner circle and Japan's highest officials was permitted to hear the voice of the god Hirohito. But a week after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Japanese government realized it had no alternative to surrender. Having previously promised its citizens victory, the government was afraid they wouldn't understand and accept the abrupt change in policy. Even the atomic bombs couldn't explain it. So the Japanese god was called upon to intervene. "Despite the best that has been done by everyone," explained the divine emperor in his historic broadcast, "the war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage, while the general trends of the world have all turned against her interest … [therefore] We have resolved to pave the way for a grand peace … by enduring the unendurable and suffering what is insufferable."


Israel of 2024 is of course not Japan of August 1945. Israel did not seek to conquer half the world, and it hasn't killed millions. Israel still enjoys local military superiority, and its international isolation is not complete. Most important, in our region nuclear weapons are yet to be used, and there is still time to prevent a Middle Eastern Hiroshima. But despite all these huge differences, there is also one point of similarity. Like the Japanese in 1945, many Israelis in 2024 are trapped in an echo chamber that promises them victory, even as we are on the verge of defeat. How to break this echo chamber? It would be unwise to wait for the atomic bomb, or for God to speak on the radio.

The Netanyahu government, which has failed in so much, must finally take responsibility. It is the Netanyahu government that adopted the disastrous agenda that brought us here, and it is the government that adopted the Samson-like policy of revenge and suicide. Woe to us if the same Samsons are now permitted to make the most important strategic and political decisions in Israel's history.

This government has reached the point at which it must endure the unendurable, admit failure, and immediately resign so that someone else can open a new page. It is vital to establish a new government, one that will be guided by a different moral compass, will end the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and will begin to rebuild our international standing. If we don't change our policy toward the Palestinians, we will be left to face Iran alone, and our end will be like that of Samson, who in impotent rage brought down the house on the heads of everyone.

Prof. Yuval Noah Harari is a historian, author of "Sapiens," "***** Deus" and "Unstoppable Us," and cofounder of the social-impact company Sapienship.