04-24-2024, 05:36 PM
(04-24-2024, 05:30 PM)Nately120 Wrote: I'll buy that Trump wins, but I don't see him winning handily. Trump walked a tightrope to win in 2016, and while it isn't impossible that he does it again, I just don't see a 2024 version of Trump being that much more successful than a 2016 version of him.
Trump does overperform the rest of his party, but seeing how Trump needs to flip multiple states that Biden won in 2020 that followed in 2022 by electing democrats to the senate and/or governor...it's possible but I'm not betting on it. But as I've said, this must be a frustrating time for normal conservatives to see the democrats hand them 2 terms on a silver platter but watch people insist that Trump gets another shot.
Toss in the notion that had Trump lost in 2016 he'd almost certainly have become the president from 2020-2028 and this stuff gets even weirder.
Personally, I mostly want Trump to lose because I want to see how people react when he says it was rigged again and then see if the whole "He'll take over on inauguration day, the election will be overturned soon, Trump will be back in 2028" and so on narratives get accepted again. Add in that it's quite likely Trump flips GA and AZ and loses by a few as 2 EC votes and these narratives are going to get some extra traction based on that alone.
Here's an interesting thought. If Trump wins the national vote, which polling shows to be definitely possible, there is a coalition of left leaning states that have pledged to give their EC votes to the national vote winner. If Trump wins the national vote then he'll win the EC in a landlside.
