Swing State Polling April 23, 2024

[*Nately120*]

(04-25-2024, 02:47 PM)hollodero Wrote: What is there to say really? Polls are close, that's not news and you yourself have posted around 10.000 polling results as of now indicating as much. And it seems not long ago there was bipartisan agreement that polls are quite inaccurate and don't mean all that much.

I may even be so bold as to say any poll that shows Trump up to Biden being up by a wee bit benefits Biden, mostly because democrats clearly vote better when they're scurred the other side will win.

If there is one thing I've noticed during the Trump era of politics, in 2016, 2020, and 2022 (I'm not actually sure what the polls and narrative going into the 2018 midterm were), the side that is convinced they have it "in the bag" underperforms.  Dems and Hillary were sure they had 2016 won, the 2016 polling errors had Trump fans convinced he'd win in 2020 because polls saying Biden were up were met with "remember 2016?" and 2022 was supposed to be a red tsunami that turned into dems gaining in the senate and republicans getting a wafer thin majority in the house.

For what it's worth, any time there is a post on reddit about Biden gaining or being up the comment section is full of "DON'T GET COMPLACENT, VOTE!!!" comments.  I knew a lot of people going into 2020 who were voting Biden and were sick with worry that he was going to lose, quite the difference from how blasé they were about Trump's chances in 2016.  I'm not saying polls saying Trump are up are a good sign for Biden, but I am saying that complacency has clearly been the downfall of the non-Trump vote so if I want Trump to win I wouldn't want to jostle people too much about how he's going to win.