06-10-2024, 03:00 PM
As everyone knows I am a poll guy. Looking at polling right now, it appears Trump may not only win in 2024, but he will also win the popular vote.
I try and put myself in liberals' shoes, what would I think based on these polls?
I see Minnesota where Trump is within the margin of error, a state Biden won big in 2020. I see Virginia tied in some polls, again Biden won handily in 2020, but Youngkin a Republican is now governor so swing it appears to GOP in Virginia. I am not saying Trump wins either, but I look at NY and Trump only down 10 as being a major blow to the Biden popular vote.
I see Trump leading Biden in 6 of 7 swing states.
The election is not soon so a lot of times for things to change, but if a liberal, very concerned the conviction of Trump had little if any negative impact on him. The voters know both candidates and their records. All of the underlying polling shows Trump with big leads over Biden on inflation/economy, Border, foreign affairs and crime.
I said it a long time ago, the border crisis created by Biden will be his undoing as Democratic cities are literally going broke and choosing illegal immigrants health and financial wellbeing over tax paying minorities. The amount of undecided voters Biden is experiencing due to liberal anti-Israel protests is also an issue. Many have said Biden lost their vote.
It appears both campaigns have a ton of money and building. One negative for Trump is the Democratic machine developed in every state over decades. They have the voter infrastructure in place to bring voters home prior to the election.
I try and put myself in liberals' shoes, what would I think based on these polls?
I see Minnesota where Trump is within the margin of error, a state Biden won big in 2020. I see Virginia tied in some polls, again Biden won handily in 2020, but Youngkin a Republican is now governor so swing it appears to GOP in Virginia. I am not saying Trump wins either, but I look at NY and Trump only down 10 as being a major blow to the Biden popular vote.
I see Trump leading Biden in 6 of 7 swing states.
The election is not soon so a lot of times for things to change, but if a liberal, very concerned the conviction of Trump had little if any negative impact on him. The voters know both candidates and their records. All of the underlying polling shows Trump with big leads over Biden on inflation/economy, Border, foreign affairs and crime.
I said it a long time ago, the border crisis created by Biden will be his undoing as Democratic cities are literally going broke and choosing illegal immigrants health and financial wellbeing over tax paying minorities. The amount of undecided voters Biden is experiencing due to liberal anti-Israel protests is also an issue. Many have said Biden lost their vote.
It appears both campaigns have a ton of money and building. One negative for Trump is the Democratic machine developed in every state over decades. They have the voter infrastructure in place to bring voters home prior to the election.
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
First 6 years BB - 41 wins and 54 losses with 1-1 playoff record with 2 teams Browns and Pats