Clearing Up Trump Trial Misinformation

[Dill]

(06-12-2024, 01:25 PM)CJD Wrote: I'm not a statistics expert either, but my understanding is that each time you select a jury member, you have an 86.8% chance they are a Biden voter. Statistically speaking, the odds of you hitting that 86.8% chance 12 times in a row is equivalent to .868^12, or 18.3%.
So, if chosen randomly, there is a 81.7% chance that at least one jury member is not a Biden voter.

Here you are assuming the pool is only drawn from voters in the last presidential election.  In the last mayoral race, only 22% of Manhattan voters actually voters. Likely the total was higher for the presidential election. https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/politics/2021/12/01/nyc-election-results-nyc-elections-2021-nyc-very-low-turnout.  Quite possible that 30-60% of the pool did not vote for either Biden or Trump. NY draws jurors from many different lists, not just registered voters.

(06-12-2024, 01:25 PM)CJD Wrote: You are phrasing the selection process as making it more likely for the Trump voters to be removed. I see it the other way. During the voir dire process, jurors are interviewed about their biases during selection. Let's say...25% of the 86.8% Biden voters are incapable of hiding their bias against Trump (a low end estimate, I imagine, if I've ever met a liberal in my life). That means the pool of Trump voters has immediately grown amongst the eligible jurors, as a quarter of the Biden voters have been summarily removed due to their obvious bias.

The preemptory challenges do not require a reason, so the prosecution must save those for the people who they believe are biased, despite hiding it appropriately.

I agree with you here.  Granted the defense might have to use their peremptory challenges earlier and more often, but all they have to do is get that one Newsmax fan who believes Trump was called by God. The prosecution is trying to get 12 people who can be counted on to follow the facts and the law.

And it looks like that's what happened in this case. We should want that and not the fanatic holdout option.