06-14-2024, 08:57 PM
(06-14-2024, 11:58 AM)Stewy Wrote: It isn't just OPEC that is predicting max Oil for years out much longer than IEA, most of the big bank lenders are doing the same. Why? Because EV's are becoming a bust, US buyers don't want them. It's becoming clear that they are more expensive and just as dirty as combustion engines because electricity is still very dirty.
On top of that Renewable installation is behind estimates due to supply chain and rare earth mineral and copper shortages slowing down progress. And on top of that the US energy grid CANNOT support an EV future. Period - no question. Because the US energy grid is controlled by local utilities and not the Fed, there is very little the Fed can do to fix this issue aside from providing loans and incentives to encourage local utilities to upgrade their grids. Biden has started down this path, but the amount their offering is a joke and not within 1% of the amount needed to get us to an EV future. I really this isn't just about the US, but as the US goes, so goes the world. 3rd world countries produce the most pollution, thus if the US can't get it's act in gear, then what of the 3rd world?
IEA is out to lunch and has an agenda that it is highly unrealistic considering the above. They won't move their peak oil outlook beyond 2030, until they're forced to do so in 2029.
These are not simple issues. One can't just say "let's just do it". Sure! Where's the money coming from? The materials? The manpower? On top of that renewables have the same decommissioning and pollution problems as oil and gas. Renewables wear out. Need replaced or fixed, all of which will require more materials and all those materials take energy produce.
The good news is that scientists and industry are innovating efficiency and progressive break throughs every day. But the technology (battery power, storage, efficiency, upgraded power grid, etc.) we need for an EV future simply doesn't exist yet. Thus the IEA's estimation of peak oil in 2030 is ridiculous.
It definitely takes investment. And it is happening.
I wouldn’t call EVs a bust. I think we are at the tip of the iceberg and it’s accelerating. I don’t think hybrids and EVs are going anywhere, their adoption will continue to expand.
https://www.iea.org/news/the-worlds-electric-car-fleet-continues-to-grow-strongly-with-2024-sales-set-to-reach-17-million
“The number of electric cars sold globally in the first three months of this year is roughly equivalent to the number sold in all of 2020.”
And China is pumping them out.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/14/chinese-automakers-overtake-us-rivals-in-sales-for-the-first-time.html
We haven’t seen mass adoption of alternative fuel tractor trailers yet. Which I hope isn’t too far off. That will be another blow to oil demand.
I like my hybrid. But I would never want to have to plug my vehicle in for hours to get range. I’ve got my fingers crossed hydrogen takes off. Able to refuel in minutes and get hundreds of miles of range, and still have my instant acceleration with my electric motors.
