03-04-2016, 04:16 AM
(03-04-2016, 02:09 AM)BengalChris Wrote: I find it all rather simple. Jim, correct me if I'm wrong on any point.
1. There's actually about $36M in cap space if you count all contracts, dead money and bonus money.
2. There are signing bonuses and other up front money that gets spread out over the term of the contract, but does need to be paid by the team on new contracts in year one. Also, the team could front load the contract to consume more of this year's cap and have a team friendly cap number for the balance of the contract. This elevates the actual spent money in 2016 and there's only so much money on hand to spend.
3. We always have an injury pool figured in, but rarely use much of it. Last year when Dalton got injured the team did explore signing a vet QB, but opted for Wenning instead. That isn't always possible. When AJ Green was injured in 2014 we opted to waste cap money by signing Little, who lived up to his name in every way on the field.
4. The most pressing free agent for next year is Eifert. The team could exercise it's 5th year team option or sign him to a long term deal. I expect they'll go for the long term deal and failing that will exercise the option. But this is going to take some up front money.
5. The team is overpaying for Zietler and Kirkpatrick for 2016 by exercising their 5th year team options. Zietler will be the highest paid OG in the NFL this year as a result. Kirkpatrick will be paid $7.5M in 2016 and I'd much rather have Adam Jones at that price. The team could try to come to long term extensions and reduce this year's cap numbers, but don't look for them to do that.
6. We don't know the team's actual financial state. It just might not have all of the $155M plus the additional bonus and up front money for new contracts signed this year.
7. The team can rollover money unused cap money to 2017 but it needs to tell the NFL how much it wants to rollover. It can also just not spend the money and not roll it over either. Thus it will never be spent. The team had $25M leftover from 2011, but didn't roll it over to 2012. Yep, you read that right.
8. We draft later, so our rookie pool should be smaller.
9. The team likes to get compensatory picks and this is factored into free agency. Whether they admit it or not. When the 2017 draft comes around there will be people posting how smart the Bengals were to let some of these guys go, even if we go one and done again.
10. The team likes the draft on the defensive side of the ball. A 4.4 or faster corner will be available for the Bengals in the first round and that's my early prediction for this year's #1 pick if we don't resign Adam Jones.
A lot of this is a solid take, especially the injury pool. We see pool numbers thrown around but you're right they pretty much pull of their on PS anyway so the raise isn't that much so that could be chipped down a bit or take it out of the money rolled over if another rare Larry Johnson scenario happens. I wanna touch on point 5 regarding their own guys. I see what you're spelling out regarding Dre and Kevin, but I don't know that actually reducing their numbers is needed. You work toward a long term deal, but I can't see either guy conceding their 2016 number nor the team's need to. You could tell Zeitler you'd make 3/4 of his number guaranteed if he signs for X dollars and lower it 15%, but he knows you aren't cutting him so why not focus on future guaranteed money? Let him be the highest paid guard, he knows you did it because you had to (in part because the rookies were and are still somewhat unknown). He also may be the highest paid guard on the market when he hits it, and even if Cincy has a history of paying a tackle before a guard that doesn't lower what the market will actually pay him. So rather than fight him for 1M this year, boost his guaranteed money in a long term deal if need be. I also suspect that they'll draft a mid round G/C type and hope to eek out another year from Whit as OL insurance in general if Zeitler hits the market.
As for Dre, the team is in a weird spot. He has played well enough to start, and actually handled some situations better than thought of but he hasn't wowed anyone into another deal. His deal is more about the corner position itself. If you're right about point 10 (I'm thinking top 3 rounds) then they still don't play rookie corners much anyway so that could be another "we like him but we still need insurance" situations. Ideally, they need a 2 year player at least to bridge the gap between a rookie, Dennard coming off the injury and the tweener with potential Shaw. Rather than pay a premium on Dre now, if Jones can't be that short term fix then they'll have to add a vet on his last legs like Cromartie or 1st rd bust like Claiborne as reasonablly cheap depth to get to next year. Even if I didn't pick the best players, you catch my drift, the types that Pacman and Newman were when they got to Cincy. It wouldn't impact the draft and is a nicer alternative to giving Dre the reasonably big deal he may need to actually sign a contract. Those two signing long term would get something productive done this offseason, but I don't know if they actually will sign nor if they'll give up much in terms of cap relief this year given their situations.
