On The Play That Hill Fumbled......

[Essex Johnson]

(04-07-2016, 10:55 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: It's not about hindsight, but it's about probability and history.

Nobody knew that he was definitely going to fumble, but you have to look at his history with fumbling problems and take that into consideration, which Marvin even admitted he did when he said that Gio would have been carrying the ball if healthy.  

He had lost one fumble since week 2, so he still had a very low risk of fumbling... I think they liked Gio style in that situation.. he tends to carry with both hands over the ball more often than Hill.. but to act like Hill was a fumble risk does not bare out in the stats.    He lost a total of 3 fumbles in the regular season... He had 238 rushes and receptions.  So he lost 3 out of 238 touches going into the playoffs.  He actually had around a 99 percent odds of not losing the fumble.   I think those were very good odds