Bengals UDFAs

[Bilbo Saggins]

(05-01-2016, 04:27 AM)NATI BENGALS Wrote: That has to be a special formula. I could see something like the UDFA/s that make the 53 man roster at the beginning of the year for every team have a higher success rate than the guys drafted in round 2-7. 2 free agents making the roster for every team would be 64 guys which is probably a high estimate. compared to 2-7 round draft picks for 32 teams which would be 192 plus the 32 comp picks is 224. 6 of the UDFAs become long term starters and they can say 9% of UDFAs became long term starters. Then they can say 6 of the 2-7 round draft picks become long term starters and that is only 2.6%.

Ok, I found this article and it explains how draft position correlated with "starter" status in 2014. It found that outside of 1st and 2nd rounders, UDFAs made up the highest percentage of starters in 2014. That probably has a lot to do with the fact that a typical team only picks up one player in rounds 3-7 while picking up several UDFAs per draft. It seems to have more to do with their sheer numbers rather than having a better chance than a late round pick.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2015/05/22/tracking-nfl-draft-efficiency-how-contingent-is-success-to-draft-position/#1ecd1a5928ea

That being said, in a climate where players like Burfict can go undrafted, I'm willing to believe that amazing things can happen with any given player.