Rank our WRs

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-23-2016, 09:22 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: First once you start playing in NFL, where you got drafted has little overall meaning.  If you are good, you are good.. so I don;t consider much on comparing a 1st round pick to a 3rd round pick etc over a career. 

As for judging a player, you really need I believe 4 to 5 years as a starter to really judge you since there are so many variables year to year.  With that said.. you look at AJ's numbers over a 5 year period right now.. some of the players you mentioned don;t compare to AJ  ie Marshall and Hopkins.  Granted Hopkins could be better but lets evaluate in two more years.  Jones and Brown are similar numbers overall. 

The big difference I see in last year numbers is targets.... AJ had 132 and just 117 the year before.  Last year Jones 203, Hopkins 192  Brown 193 and Marshall 173.   Give AJ even 175 targets last year, his numbers would be even higher  based on his YPC that would give him 1,600 yards last year and 13 TDS.. 

but think about what he still has accomplished over five years of service   1,234 yards per game, 14.9 YPC and 9 TDs  a season.. that is impressive and to me warrants top 5 type status especially when we start to factor in lack of targets last couple years.  

Finally lets see what happens over the next five years but if he averages the same the  next five, he would finish with 12,340 yards, 90 TDS which would put him around top 20 in yards and around top 10 in TDS in just 10 seasons.. that is possible HOF numbers for just 10 seasons

That is a downright silly argument, Essex. By no means does it take 4 to 5 years to find out what you have in players. That's right up there with the people who called Kirkpatrick a rookie for like 4 years.

-It took 2 to start a conversation and 3 to establish Geno Atkins at one of the best DT in the game right now without a doubt.
-It took Burfict 2 to make himself one of the best 4-3 LB in the NFL.
-OBJ was in the conversation to be among the best right from his rookie year.
-Adrian Peterson was one of the best from Day 1.
-It took Peyton Manning only 2 years.
-It took Antonio Brown 2 years (his second year was actually the first he got ANY starts, so by your 4-5 years of starting criteria, it only took him 1 year).
-It took AJ Green 2 years to be a top-10 guy.

etc, etc, etc

There is no way that it takes 4-5 years of starting to know what you have in a player, and how good they are.


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As for his theoretical 10 year numbers, it WON'T be HoF numbers by the time he is eligible (5 years after retirement, so 10 years from now in your 10 year career scenario) because of how the game has changed...

Dante Lavelli ('46-'56): 386/6,488/72
Raymond Berry ('55-'67): 631/9,275/68
Charlie Joiner ('69-'86): 750/12,146/65
Tim Brown (''88-'04): 1,094/14,934/100

Chances are, you're going to need 1,300/20,000/130-type numbers in order to get in by the time AJ Green is eligible. Anquan Boldin is sitting on 13,195 yards and he probably won't make it in seeing as how there's 3 active players with more yards and Marshall will almost certainly pass him before he retires.

When Boldin entered the NFL in 2003, there were 2 QBs who passed for 4,000+ yards.
When AJ entered the NFL in 2011, there were 10 QBs who passed for 4,000+ yards and 3 who passed for 5,000+ yards.
Last year, even with all the QB injuries and backup QBs who were playing, there were still 12 QBs who passed for 4,000 yards.

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Side note: You really don't think Marshall compares with AJ? He's been playing at a higher level than AJ for a bit now. Guy has put up at least 1,200 yard seasons with 4 different teams with a plethora of various shit QBs (Cutler, Orton, Henne, Thigpen, Moore, Campbell, McCown, Clausen, Fitzpatrick), including 2 seasons of 1,500+ yards.

Plus Hopkins has gone from 800 yards, to 1,200 yards, to 1,500 yards.. with some of the worst QBs in the league. (Schaub, Keenum, Fitzpatrick, Hoyer, Mallett, Weeden, Yates)


(Holy shit those are some really bad QBs. I knew they were bad, but actually typing all those out really hit harder than reading them. Lol)