07-02-2016, 05:23 PM
I find it very difficult to buy the conclusions they are coming to based upon the annual data.
Check out - http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/
There are maps for every day of the year. The last 7 are immediately available. They show that the ozone hole is highly variable and tends to migrate quickly from day to day. This is not my opinion, it is purely observational. Look at the images yourself.
Concluding that it looks highly variable I wanted to see the annual data which has been collected yearly since 1979. The graphs at the bottom of the page represent the average total ozone and average hole area for each year since 1979. Here they are.
![[Image: meteorology_annual.png]](http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/statistics/meteorology_annual.png)
OHA = Ozone Hole Are
MO = Minimum Ozone
What observations can we draw from these images:
#1 - The OHA and MO have been statistically static since 1991
#2 - The OHA and MO appear to have a 1 to 1 negative correlation as observed during the spike years. This is expected. The higher the MO the smaller the OHA. (spike years, high daily variability)
#3 - 1988 and 2002 appear anomalous to me. Further study should be done to see if the data should be thrown out for those years. Also they are huge spikes. Are they related to world events? Huge forest fires? Volcanism? They need to be explained or removed.
#4 - 1998, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2015 - all have average hole sizes near the maximum expressed in year 2006.
#5 - The MO graph actually shows a steady and systematic REDUCTION in MO from 2011 till 2015. This is counter to the recent conclusions.
Conclusion:
There is nothing in the long term data measured over 36 years, that would lead me to conclude the Ozone Layer is healing. The conclusions I would draw are as follows:
#1 - It isn't getting worse (yay!)
#2 - There are likely atmospheric controls outside of the influence of CFC's that are also annually affecting the MO and OHA (spike years if the data is real, high daily variability).
Check out - http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/
There are maps for every day of the year. The last 7 are immediately available. They show that the ozone hole is highly variable and tends to migrate quickly from day to day. This is not my opinion, it is purely observational. Look at the images yourself.
Concluding that it looks highly variable I wanted to see the annual data which has been collected yearly since 1979. The graphs at the bottom of the page represent the average total ozone and average hole area for each year since 1979. Here they are.
OHA = Ozone Hole Are
MO = Minimum Ozone
What observations can we draw from these images:
#1 - The OHA and MO have been statistically static since 1991
#2 - The OHA and MO appear to have a 1 to 1 negative correlation as observed during the spike years. This is expected. The higher the MO the smaller the OHA. (spike years, high daily variability)
#3 - 1988 and 2002 appear anomalous to me. Further study should be done to see if the data should be thrown out for those years. Also they are huge spikes. Are they related to world events? Huge forest fires? Volcanism? They need to be explained or removed.
#4 - 1998, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2015 - all have average hole sizes near the maximum expressed in year 2006.
#5 - The MO graph actually shows a steady and systematic REDUCTION in MO from 2011 till 2015. This is counter to the recent conclusions.
Conclusion:
There is nothing in the long term data measured over 36 years, that would lead me to conclude the Ozone Layer is healing. The conclusions I would draw are as follows:
#1 - It isn't getting worse (yay!)
#2 - There are likely atmospheric controls outside of the influence of CFC's that are also annually affecting the MO and OHA (spike years if the data is real, high daily variability).
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
