Johnson/Weld Ad

[BmorePat87]

(08-18-2016, 06:44 PM)BmorePat87 Wrote: Not necessarily. Remember, it's by state, with each state getting 1 vote. How many states have a majority that would support Trump over Johnson. How many Democratic controlled states would compromise with moderate Republicans and swing in his favor?

This would require Johnson to have some electoral votes (top 3 electoral vote getters are considered), but I could see a Johnson/Kaine compromise ticket if Congress has to vote. 

36 Republican states
3 tied states
11 Democratic states

They'd need those tied states and 12 of the Republican states. 

Some possible states that could turn from Trump:

Wyoming: Single at large
Wisconsin: You'd need 2 Republicans to join Democrats to oppose Trump
Virginia: 3 switch
South Dakota: single at large
North Dakota: single at large 
Nevada: 2 switch
Nebraska: 1 switch
Montana: Single at large 
Missouri: 3 switch
Mississippi: 3 switch
Minnesota: 3 switch
Louisiana: 3 switch 
Kentucky: 3 switch
Iowa: 2 switch
Indiana: 3 switch
Idaho: 2 switch
Colorado: 1 switch
Arkansas: 3 switch
Arizona: 1 switch
Alaska: Single at large 
Alabama: 3 switch

I'd throw out Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi. That's 16 states you need 12 of which to reverse on Trump. 

Wyoming's Lummis was a Cruz supporter and has spoken out on Trump's need to balance his temperament with a solid VP pick.
Wisconsin will likely go to Clinton in the general, she's up double digits. Would they respect the voters anti-Trump sentiment and not back him?
Virginia will also likely go to Clinton. Ignore them and back Trump over someone else, or compromise with the Senate and get Kaine on the ticket?
South Dakota's Noem wouldn't commit to Trump until he locked it up. Could swap. 
Nevada is a SLIGHT Clinton lead right now. 
I'm assuming Nebraska isn't in play.
Montana's Zinke is a Trump man.
Missouri is a SLIGHT Trump lead. Could go Clinton.
Minnesota leans Clinton right now.
Iowa is a SLIGHT Clinton lead right now and went Cruz.
Indiana will back Trump and any effort to get Pence elected.
Idaho is unlikely to waiver but it's only 2 people, so who knows.
Colorado will almost definitely go Clinton, they only need one convert, and Johnson polls well there.
Arizona is in play and only 1 needs to switch.
Alaska's Don Young blamed "idiots" for letting Trump win the Primary. 


Again, this is a scenario that assumes three candidates get electoral votes and none reach 270. I expect Hillary to get well over 270.