09-11-2016, 12:56 AM
North Korea exists solely because China wants it to. This is why they intervened in the last war (which technically is still going on as there was never an armistice or peace treaty signed, only a cease fire agreement). China wants it to exist because they don't want a unified (and especially a democratic) Korea next door to them. That is a serious threat to them. They would much rather have a puppet state, no matter how loony their leadership, since the North Koreans are sane enough to know they would not exist without China.
The story of China since the communist took over has been about them seeking security. One aspect of this has been internally, among their own population. A second aspect has been along their borders. The third aspect is internationally. The second aspect is more important to the Chinese than what most Americans understand. Here in the U.S., we have two neighbors and haven't had a serious threat of invasion from either since the early 19th century. China shares borders with fourteen different countries (North Korea, Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam). Four of those countries (North Korea, India, Russia and Pakistan) have nuclear weapons. How would you like to have that as neighbors? In the past 60 years, China has had border wars with Russia, Vietnam, and India (x3). They have territorial claims on the Kashmir region of northeast Pakistan and Afghanistan, which puts them at odds with two other nuclear powers (India and Pakistan - this is a primary reason for nuclear proliferation in south central asia). The Chinese are also concerned with outside influences on border areas. That threatens internal security. There are longstanding separatist movements in Tibet and in the Xinjiang Province in the far northwest of China. For the Chinese to have their border with North Korea to be an area they don't need to be concerned about is critical with so many other things going on.
North Korea is also a political tool. If the U.S. wants North Korea to do something or not do something, we often have to go through China. And guess who that benefits? The Chinese, of course.
I have little doubt that, if we were resolved to do so, we could successfully invade North Korea. And we may yet do that if they reach a point where they can miniaturize their nukes enough to put them on warheads and have rockets which can reach Hawaii or other parts of the U.S. (estimated to occur within the next twenty years). And China will most probably do what they did during the original Korean War: wait until our troops reach the Yalu River and then send their troops pouring over the border. The status of that enlarged conflict might well be determined by what the Russians chose to do (The Russians share a sliver of the border with North Korea).
It is more probable that we will make some sort of ugly deal with China before anything like that happened to remove the North Korean regime and remove their nuclear capacity. This is where this scenario is heading.
As far as North Korea crossing the border and invading South Korea, I don't see it happening. They have no motivation to do that. South Korea serves purposes for the North Koreans. As I mentioned above, North Korea exists because China wants it as a buffer zone and because they do not want a unified Korea. Even a unified communist Korea. A successful invasion of the South would radically change North Korea's relationship with China for the worse. Also, what would the North Koreans get by invading the South? Gold watches, new cars, and other Western trinkets? What they would get is something they would not want: Western thoughts and ideas infiltrating into their well-manicured and indoctrinated population. That would be something that would be an existential threat from within to the North Korean regime. They retain power by keeping their population isolated from outside influences. Not to mention the headaches of trying to subjugate and indoctrinate a population about equal in size to their own.
No, it makes no sense for the regime to do it. With them, it is all about sabre-rattling to get attention and things.
As far as the conduct of a war if North Korea were to invade the South, I would look for it to go pretty similar to how it went in 1950. The North invades. The South and U.S. forces withdraw and regroup (probably much, much more organized this time around). The U.S. establishes air superiority and blunts the North's thrust south. Troops from the U.S. arrive and a successful counterattack is launched regaining all lost ground and driving deep into North Korea.
But that ain't gonna happen.
The story of China since the communist took over has been about them seeking security. One aspect of this has been internally, among their own population. A second aspect has been along their borders. The third aspect is internationally. The second aspect is more important to the Chinese than what most Americans understand. Here in the U.S., we have two neighbors and haven't had a serious threat of invasion from either since the early 19th century. China shares borders with fourteen different countries (North Korea, Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam). Four of those countries (North Korea, India, Russia and Pakistan) have nuclear weapons. How would you like to have that as neighbors? In the past 60 years, China has had border wars with Russia, Vietnam, and India (x3). They have territorial claims on the Kashmir region of northeast Pakistan and Afghanistan, which puts them at odds with two other nuclear powers (India and Pakistan - this is a primary reason for nuclear proliferation in south central asia). The Chinese are also concerned with outside influences on border areas. That threatens internal security. There are longstanding separatist movements in Tibet and in the Xinjiang Province in the far northwest of China. For the Chinese to have their border with North Korea to be an area they don't need to be concerned about is critical with so many other things going on.
North Korea is also a political tool. If the U.S. wants North Korea to do something or not do something, we often have to go through China. And guess who that benefits? The Chinese, of course.
I have little doubt that, if we were resolved to do so, we could successfully invade North Korea. And we may yet do that if they reach a point where they can miniaturize their nukes enough to put them on warheads and have rockets which can reach Hawaii or other parts of the U.S. (estimated to occur within the next twenty years). And China will most probably do what they did during the original Korean War: wait until our troops reach the Yalu River and then send their troops pouring over the border. The status of that enlarged conflict might well be determined by what the Russians chose to do (The Russians share a sliver of the border with North Korea).
It is more probable that we will make some sort of ugly deal with China before anything like that happened to remove the North Korean regime and remove their nuclear capacity. This is where this scenario is heading.
As far as North Korea crossing the border and invading South Korea, I don't see it happening. They have no motivation to do that. South Korea serves purposes for the North Koreans. As I mentioned above, North Korea exists because China wants it as a buffer zone and because they do not want a unified Korea. Even a unified communist Korea. A successful invasion of the South would radically change North Korea's relationship with China for the worse. Also, what would the North Koreans get by invading the South? Gold watches, new cars, and other Western trinkets? What they would get is something they would not want: Western thoughts and ideas infiltrating into their well-manicured and indoctrinated population. That would be something that would be an existential threat from within to the North Korean regime. They retain power by keeping their population isolated from outside influences. Not to mention the headaches of trying to subjugate and indoctrinate a population about equal in size to their own.
No, it makes no sense for the regime to do it. With them, it is all about sabre-rattling to get attention and things.
As far as the conduct of a war if North Korea were to invade the South, I would look for it to go pretty similar to how it went in 1950. The North invades. The South and U.S. forces withdraw and regroup (probably much, much more organized this time around). The U.S. establishes air superiority and blunts the North's thrust south. Troops from the U.S. arrive and a successful counterattack is launched regaining all lost ground and driving deep into North Korea.
But that ain't gonna happen.
![[Image: 416686247_404249095282684_84217049823664...e=659A7198]](https://scontent.fphx1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/416686247_404249095282684_8421704982366424390_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=3635dc&_nc_ohc=p8hMrwwk1IoAX8mnFLJ&_nc_ht=scontent.fphx1-2.fna&oh=00_AfBXs4gKHr4knFejO874dfV3zzLd_bq4GiUqHxGWFlwbug&oe=659A7198)
