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Andy Dalton and the QBR Floor Theory
(07-08-2015, 02:41 AM)J24 Wrote: How is it off base? Can you elaborate instead of just ignoring the point because it goes against your argument?  In all honesty should Andy Dalton average 40 pass attempts in the playoffs?  Joe Flaco averages 30 pass attempts during the playoffs, Big Ben averages 30 pass attempts in the playoffs,  and Russell Wilson and averages 25 pass attempts per a game.  We can all agree that those three guys are have been the most successful young playoff Qbs right? Well maybe it has to do with the fact that there not asked to carry their respective teams and the coaching staff puts less pressure him.  

It doesn't go against my argument because it doesn't address any part of my argument. You found a random, small, arbitrary, unrelated stat to use as some sort of Andy Dalton Alamo.

Since I believe in the best in people I will assume you are interested in getting right and not just feeling right, so I will humor you.


Andy's attempts and (passer rating) in his 4 playoff games...

HOU - 42 (51.4)
HOU - 30 (44.7)
SD - 51 (67)
IND - 35 (63.4)

- The above debunks your theory of his number of attempts causing his level low level of play to fall lower. Note how in the game where he had the lowest number of attempts he had his worst passer rating. Note that the game where he had his highest number of attempts he had his highest passer rating.

- You mention Joe Flacco & Ben's (a certain HOFer) attempts and average - in JUST the playoffs, btw. Looking at the game logs, yeah, they have games where they throw it 25 or 27 times, but also games where they throw it 30 or 40 times. I don't see this indicative of anything or how it relates. Do you really think their coaches are sitting there thinking they have to limit those guys? But in the defense of keeping a sub par player like Dalton on the roster, THAT is the plan? "He's just as good.... if he doesn't play." Why not just keep working to find a QB who CAN play and isn't so limited or volatile?

- Andy throws the ball more because the Bengals are playing from behind. If they weren't behind, they wouldn't throw as much. The SD game they were behind from the 6:46 left int he 3rd quarter on. So, yeah, he has a lot of attempts that game, which skews this average you have brought in.

The SD game is an interesting one to me, so lets look at the game and try to find the reason for 51 attempts. People bring up crappy D or the running game, etc. I just went back through the game logs to see some break down of what happened. Here is what I found.

1st half 

- The D held the Chargers to 7 points in the first half. The Bengals were up 10-7 at the half.
- Bernard's fumble on the SD 16 yard line took certain points off the board, but did NOT lead to any SD points the following drive (CIN got the ball back at their own 32 from a SD punt).
- Ends 10-7 Bengals up.


2nd half 

- Short opening drive for CIN
- SD scores TD (10-14)
- Dalton Fumbles on CIN 25 yard line; SD kicks field goal (10-17 SD)
- NEXT POSSESSION 3 & out as Dalton throws 3rd down INT on the Bengals 33 yard line which was returned to the Bengals 3;
SD kicks field goal (10-20)
- NEXT POSSESSION Dalton throws INT. SD ball at the 50 yard line due to penalty. The D stops them from scoring anything.
- THIS IS WHERE THE BENGALS START THROWING LIKE CRAZY.... down 10 with 8 mins left. It gets them nowhere, but there is your 51 attempts comes from.
- 3 mins left; Brown runs for 58 yards and a TD (10-27 SD)

People blaming the D for that loss either don't remember the game, didn't watch the game, or are really big Andy Dalton fans. The D gave up only 7 points in the 1st half and at one point in the second half had 3 straight short fields of 25, 3, & 50 yards due to Dalton turnovers and only gave up 6 points from those. The offense could NOT score from there on out. 

Look at how the game unfolded for yourself (WARNING: If you have a #14 Dalton jersey, hide your lighters because you might want to burn it)...
http://espn.go.com/nfl/playbyplay?gameId=340105004&period=1


- The only conclusion on Andy's workload and how it effects the Bengals I can draw at this point is that it might not be the end of the world if his workload drops to 0 attempts. A lot of players (the D) have taken unfair criticism from that SD game when it was clearly AD who filled his pants and stunk the place up. I know you think it is unfair for Andy to have to have 51 attempts, but that's his fault and his job and what he gets paid to do. I just want him to do it not as badly.
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RE: Andy Dalton and the QBR Floor Theory - PDub80 - 07-08-2015, 07:55 AM

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