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Andy Dalton and the QBR Floor Theory
(07-08-2015, 11:05 AM)spazz70 Wrote: Again, convenient things for your argument.  I am not defending Dalton with this point...I am questioning the coaching decisions...BJGE was averaging 5.5 ypc in that game...He came out in the second half and was in on the first series...he did not have one more attempt the rest of the game..He just had a very good game in SD a few weeks earlier and we just abandon his play after one series in the second half.....Again, we know Dalton's faults...Why put more pressure on him in the second half by abandoning what is working?

Convenient? I guess - If you call AD going back to back to back series with turnovers on a short field convenient. Ha!

Look,

The coaches don't play the game. AD does. But, lets look at your idea of the Bengals not running the ball....

1st Half

If you look at the play calling, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FINAL 1:30 of the 1st half, the Bengals ran the ball 13 times and passed 13 times. I did NOT count Dalton's own recovered fumble on a 1 yard scramble as a run or a pass. I excluded the plays in the 2min drill because, yeah, they are going to pass in that situation where they got the ball back with 1:30 left in the half.

2nd Half

To start the 2nd half, they ran the ball two straight times and then had a Dalton scramble before punting.

San Diego scored a TD on their 1st possession of the 2nd half, making the score 10-14 (SD up).

Guess what happened the next 3 possessions after that? The 3 turnovers in a row by Dalton. 1 was the self inflicted fumble where nobody touched him on the Bengals own 25 yard line. The other were an INT on the Bengals 3, and the 3rd an INT on the 50 yard line. After all of that, the Chargers only managed another 6 points until the D gave up a long TD run in garbage time (about 3 min left in the game).

The Bengals didn't start throwing a bunch until they were down 10 points towards the end of the 3rd. Also, please note that in the NFL, if your rushing attempts = your passing attempts (like in the first half of that game) you are considered an incredibly run heavy offense. http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/47694/260/2014-passrun-rate-projections of 2014 projections of run/pass balance based on "Pass/Run %" Note the Bengals at 32 as projecting to be the most run heavy team.

To blame the coaches for the SD game, or a bad game plan, or putting too much on AD does not add up to what happened or the order that it happened in.

Also, to point to BJGE as some sort of monster by that point in the 2013 season is unrealistic. There's a reason he was gone after that - gone from the entire NFL, BTW. He was slowing down, dinged up, and Gio had come into his own. BJGE avg only 3.4 yards for the season. To think he was going to all of a sudden carry for a bunch against SD is unrealistic. Go look at some of his averages and number of carries leading up to that game. Not consistent or impressive.

Bottom line: Blaming the coaches or D for the SD loss does not hold up. Unproductive stretches coupled with Gio's turnover and AD's tripple meltdown in the 3rd quarter sealed that deal.

Silver lining: If the Bengals can get AD, or whoever is QB, to only have one turnover in a game like the SD playoffs and instead turn those good drives into TD... they WIN those hard fought games. That is my whole point. AD doesn't have to be consistently awesome... just not consistently as bad.
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RE: Andy Dalton and the QBR Floor Theory - PDub80 - 07-08-2015, 01:56 PM

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