07-09-2015, 10:32 AM
(07-09-2015, 09:36 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I understand what you are saying about floor and not ceiling, but this also neglects the fact that a defense is seeing an offense for a second time. You could look at it both ways. I would rather have the average. Regardless, I appreciate the time you took to look at this and post a small sample of the numbers. I will try to get some time this weekend and look in to more of what I was trying to communicate.
I understand the line of thinking you are on, for sure. Just some thoughts below...
The offense also has a familiarity with the defense as well. It works both ways so I considered it a wash. Unless we can show a trend where the 1st time the offense plays a defense passer rating is lower and then 2nd time it gets higher with some sort of regularity, or vice vera, I don't see how it is a reliable indicator or factor.
I will do a comparison....
Dalton against the AFCN. 1st time/2nd time.
2014
BAL 98.7/89.3
CLE 2.0/53.6
PIT 128.8/83.7
2013
BAL 52.3/62.2
CLE 58.2/62.7
PIT 97.2/86.4
2012
BAL 65.3/101.5
CLE 128.2/87.3
PIT 56.4/58.8
Conclusion: The 2nd time he plays an opponent bares absolutely no factor, rhyme, or reason. But that's the problem, IMO. If it was something that was consistent or identifiable it could be worked on or fixed or game planned for, right? It's not. It's inconsistency and randomness. THAT is why I have been of the opinion that Andy Dalton is not a long term, viable option to build a championship contender or a team that has a year after year legit shot at winning a Superbowl. He is too bad to be considered good.
