10-11-2016, 06:03 PM
(10-11-2016, 05:55 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: He is on the ballot for 11 states, though he has write-in access to more. 84 electoral votes on ballot, 317 with write-ins.Thank you, Matt !
Write-in states he will be inconsequential. The number of people that will write in an actual candidate is not high enough to be a challenger. For the 84 electoral votes he is on the ballot for there is the issue that only two states have had polls so far with him included that I could readily find. Those were Utah and Virginia. In Utah he is hovering around 10% (two 9% polls in a six-way race, and a 12% in a five-way). In Virginia he started at 3% in a five-way race twice, and then has dropped down to 2%, then 1% in the most recent poll that included him.
Without adequate polling data it is hard to tell what kind of role he could play. Electoral math right now gives Clinton 341 votes (last that I saw) but with most of that polling not including McMullin we can't be certain. The states where he is on the ballot are a mixture of red and blue (for this election) so his effect is hard to measure.
I'll be honest though, I don't put too much faith in polls.
They seem a little insignificant, given the majority are only conducted via landlines (generally targeting the older voters that haven't switched completely to cell-phones).
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