Time for Nugent to go

[wolverine515151]

(10-27-2016, 10:58 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You don't watch much football do you?

Last year there were only 160 FG attempts of 50 yards or longer in 256 games.  That is 0.3 attempts per team per game.

I know just as much math as you, but the big difference is that I know enough about football to realize that no team in the league attempts a 50+ yard FG everytime they get in range.

So here is some more math (plus reality) for you.  160 FG attempts is exactly 5 per team.   62% for a full season would produce 9.3 points over 16 games.  41% would produce 6.2 points.  So the difference between Nugent and an average NFL kicker is 0.2 points per game.

What a "game changer"!  One full point every 5 games.  How could the Bengals ever overcome such a huge deficit?!?!?!?

It has nothing to do with spreading the 50+ field goals over 16 games. Its about needing a clutch kick in pressure situations to win the game.

Maybe once or twice a year we'll be facing a situation where were driving the down the field with less than a minute to go and no timeouts and were on like the 36 yard line. Its 4th and 7.We're down by 2 points. The chances for converting the fourth down is about 40%. It's about a 53 yard field goal. The chances for nugent to make that field goal is about 30%. We're forced to go for it.

Now we still have to kick a shorter field goal after we convert the fourth down . That field goal would be about 40 yards with a chance of conversion of about 60%. That means by going for it our chance for success is 40% x 60% which is 24%.

So were forced into two bad situations both with bad chances of success. Convert fourth and go for FG from about 40 yards out with 24% of chance of success. Try nugents weak leg from over 50 with a 30% chance of success.

If it were a good kicker from over 50 the chances could be as high as 70%.

It could mean the difference between making the playoffs and not.

Your argument to spread the field goals made over 16 is so utterly stupid its not worth commenting.

Let me compare it to someone taking a punch to the face. You would laugh at them and say why did that punch hurt. If you count the amount of seconds in a  week its 24 x 60 x 60 x 7. That's 604800.

If the punch was 500 newtons of force that means each second has .001 newtons. That means the person got hit with .001 newtons of force every second for  a week. That's an absurd comment because a force applied quickly is obviously going to hurt a lot more than if its spread out.

Likewise a field goal missed in a crucial situation is more impactful than calculating it over a 16 game schedule. What about that do you not understand.