Donald Trump's phone call with Taiwan president risks China's wrath

[Dill]

(12-03-2016, 02:37 PM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: First of all, the phone call was made by the Taiwanese president.  Second, Donald Trump isn't going to insult her by letting the call go to voice mail.  Third, Taiwan is our natural ally in the region and they've been getting the middle finger from the US since 1978.

Fourth, since 1979 we have had a "one China" policy, which began when we moved our embassy to Beijing, recognizing the People's Republic as the sole legitimate government of China.  Since then, established protocol has been that the president of the US does not communicate directly with the president of Taiwan, which China--and the US--recognize as a province of China. Everyone in foreign service understands how important the chain of command is, how the US has to speak with one voice vis-a-vis other nations. The President of Taiwan also understood this, and if she did call, probably did not expect to actually speak with Trump.

Fifth, not only is China the 2nd largest economy in the world (our third largest trading partner after the EU and Canada), but also the only country with any real leverage over North Korea--in my view, the most dangerous existential foreign threat to the US. Our staunch allies Japan and South Korea also realize this, and see stable relations between the US and China as in their national/regional interests as well.  The PRC is also one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. The ability to work with China diplomatically is central to US strategic goals not only on the Pacific Rim, but in both central Asia as well.  E.g., They are a major player in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, a counter weight to Russia and signatories to the recent Iran deal. Their cooperation is required whenever the US wants to sanction countries like Iran or Pakistan.

Sixth, the volume of US trade with Taiwan is barely a fifth of our trade with China. We have a healthy "unofficial" trade relation with them and one military defense treaty, but truth be told, they are FAR LESS important to the US national interest than the PRC. And the PRC, while generally a pragmatic, rational actor on the world stage, is often irrational with respect to Taiwan (like an otherwise normal guy still talking trash about an ex-wife who got the house), which makes them very unpredictable on this one issue. It is not in the interest of either Taiwan or the US to destabilize present relations between the US and the PRC.

The only country in the region served by a feckless, inexperienced president making or taking phone calls outside of accepted diplomatic channels is North Korea, which benefits from the waves of uncertainty spreading out from Trump's statements and actions..