Russians move SRBMs to Kaliningrad

[Dill]

(12-16-2016, 01:08 AM)Bengalzona Wrote: Putin is sitting pretty. He has stuck it to the U.S. harder than Trump's son gave it Melania last night.

But seriously, everything this guy has wanted he has gotten in the past couple of years. He bullied Georgia unperturbed. He meddled in the Ukrainian elections, invaded Crimea, and now has the Ukrainians fighting themselves. He meddled with the British vote for Brexit and got what he wanted there. He meddled with the U.S. elections and got what he wanted there. With Trump making overtures to exit NATO, Angela Merkel is now considered the Leader of the Free World. France and Germany have upcoming elections, and the Russians are expected to meddle in those as well. 

Oh yeah. He also came out today as the Great Protector in Aleppo by guaranteeing the civilians safety while evacuating the city (many people willfully forgetting that the Russians have been pretty indiscriminately bombing civilians over there for the past 2 years).

But you mentioned timing. Timing is everything. SSF mentioned in another thread the possibility of disbanding NATO. It was not a bad idea.... 20 or 10 years ago. Now, it is a geo-politically insane idea. The only historical correlation I can draw is what happened in Germany in the 20's and 30's: splitting alliances, intimidating neighbors, re-incorporating sovereign nations based upon historic claims, etc. In that sense, it is almost like history repeating itself. Putin is clearly not a Nazi. Nor is he a Communist. But he has no problem throwing peace aside and playing the brinksmanship game that so many dictators have played in the past. 

My problem with Putin is not so much his goals, however. We are still not sure what his goals are exactly. The similarities with Pre-WWII Germany end with that. My problem is with his means right now. They are not acceptable. IMO, you meet him with toughness, or you bend over and lube up. 

Very concise. You tied together a bundle of disparate events, some I hadn't considered, like the coming elections in Europe.

No ideology. Not a Nazi or a Communist. Fascist-tending, but absent an ideological program beyond Russian nationalism. That makes his long game hard to suss out.

So the means. Low-intensity warfare on borders, cyberwarfare against the "real" powers, a large footprint in a former Soviet Client state in the Levant, leverage with the Iran Treaty, and now missiles in K-grad, near the heart of Europe and Europe's most powerful economy. Given the size of Russia's economy and its inability to lead coalitions to accomplish foreign policy ends, I have not been terribly worried about this, until the apparently successful cyber attack in the US and the missiles in K-grad. Now I confess some concern. Suddenly the forces previously hemming him in are gone or weakened. The cyber attack and missile placement seem VERY bold. Risky. Yet done.

And Timing. Obama has promised unspecified retaliation.

But we are between presidencies, and between presidents with very different levels of competence. Putin certainly watched the debates.
Can you see HIM in a late night name-calling tweet storm about some celebrity or journalist he didn't like?

So, if you have time to think this over--two questions. What sort of "toughness" would you LIKE to see here. Beef up NATO? Missiles in Poland to maybe force a Cuban-style evacuation of K-grad? Combined with a punitive cyberattack like our response to N. Korea? More targeted sanctions?

And what sort of toughness are we LIKELY to see. Trump won't be up to speed by Jan. 20. He'll get competing advice from people he has picked, many from the fringes of the foreign policy establishment, and many like him, favor Russian interests. He may still feel he doesn't need his PDBs while looking for major foreign policy resets east, west, and south. If he contests CIA/FBI intel regarding the Russian hack, why would he follow through any retaliation begun by Obama? Especially against someone who says nice things about him.  Personally, I don't think we will see "toughness" at all once Trump is in office, though some of his people may urge him to do something. We may see toughness towards segments of our own populace--against flagburners and the like. Undocumented immigrants.