Some Truth about Oil Shales......

[Stewy]

(01-06-2017, 03:26 AM)JustWinBaby Wrote: Fair points.  But I'm talking specifically about energy/fuel.  Fossils will continue to be used for the byproducts you mention, but there's really no issue there.

Also, I specifically mentioned battery tech as being viable enough to transition to a world of "fusion".  Jet planes, probably not.  But industry, home energy, cars and trucks, sure.  And that's the bulk of man's carbon footprint (ignoring cow farts which increases directly with geometric population growth).

I'm probably wrong, but I don't see an insurmountable change in infrastructure.  Ignoring that upgrades will be made - need to be made - over the next 50 years...you produce energy over the existing grid and batteries can be charged to supply our needs.

I agree with you, that there will be technology advances over the next century that will make electric vehicles more efficient and viable.  But I think you under estimate the strain this amount of use would put on our power grid.  Only so much electricity can flow through the aging circuits at a time.  Also the need/cost to change out fuel stations to power recharge stations will be enormous.  Also, I think you over estimate how quickly fusion can be brought from not achieved, to "discovered in a lab" to "sustainable safely on a small scale" to sustainable safely on a large scale" to "first viable power plant" to "wide spread use".  Science never jumps in with both feet and starts running with the ball.  Fusion will require decades of testing and trials to improve efficiency and assure safety.  Science NEVER jumps in with both feet and says "Ok we discovered it today, now it's safe and efficient to use tomorrow.".  I realize you weren't being this flippant, but if you look back at the evolution of fission you may get why I am skeptical of fusions relatively quick widespread and global use in our lives post "discovery".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power
1932 Fission First Achieved - Accidentally via observations made using a proton accelrator
1942 First Controlled Nuclear Reaction - Basement under a Squash Court at the University of Chicago
1952 First Nuclear Reactor built to a power grid - USSR 5 MW
1956 First Commercial Nuclear Reactor - Britain 50 MW
1979 Three Mile Island Incident - US regulations and public perception change in Nuclear Perception - people no longer wanted a reactor in their backyard
1986 Chernobyl Accident - read up on this;  it's chilling
2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident - natures reality trumps mans caution

Regardless of what some think of humans in general, the scientific community does generally learn from it's mistakes.  Before Three mile island, scientists in the 1960's had already begun to raise concerns related to nuclear accidents, proliferation, high cost to produce, nuclear terrorism and waste disposal.  All of these concerns turned out to be absolutely justified (minus the terrorism), and together along with the accidents are why the world has essentially stopped building new fission power plants.

And it is this history along with a fear of repeating the same mistakes, which will take Fusion power from a 50 year dream to a 200 year reality, IMO.  Science, governments and the people will want caution and justifiably so considering the history.  Only the ignorant and reckless will want acceleration without consideration and caution.