Too much faith in Burfict?

[Whatever]

(01-22-2017, 05:02 AM)Burma Wrote: I was thinking about this earlier tonight.   Burfict is a difference maker, and when he wants to be, a top 3 or 4 LB in the league.  However, 2017 is Burfict's last under contract.  He is going to get paid, either here or somewhere else.  Assuming he gets a comparable contract to Luke Kuechly's we are talking about a 5 year, $60-65 mill contract coming in around a yearly cap # of 12-15 mill.  That's a huge contract for the Bengals, HUGE.  The Bengals currently have 2 guys who have a yearly cap number comparable; Dalton at $15.7 mill and AJ at $13.5 mill.  Not even Geno (10.6) has that kind of cap number and I would take him 10 times out of 10 over Burfict if i needed to pick a player for my Defense.

So I think it's safe to say it's a bit unlikely the Bengals are going to pony up that kind of cash.  But if they do it's going to come at the expense of improving the team this free agency period.  You have to think they are going to take a huge chunk out of that nearly $50 mill in cap space the Bengals have and put it away towards a new contract for Burfict.  Money that culd have been spent resigning Zeitler AND adding someone else.  I think that is a terrible mistake.  This team is built around Dalton and AJ. Their window is the Bengals window and we are in the back half of that window.  The team doesn't have the luxury of not getting better now in the hopes that they can keep 1 player later. And there is nothing to make me think Burfict is a certain resign.  Marvin might be on his way out.  He was Marvin's guy.  Without that emotional anchor I could easily see him following the best offer and leaving the Bengals a season behind in their rebuilding efforts.

Addition by substraction is real.  This would be a prime example of it.  The Bengals are not just 1 player away from a Superbowl. They are not guaranteed to even resign Burfict.  Assuming the Bengal's could find a trading partner for Burfict the would even profit cap wise. Trading Burfict before this draft would only be $775,000 dead money for next season and would SAVE the Bengals @ $4 mill this season. 

Cutting Muauluga, Pacman, and trading AJ, and Burfict would put this Bengals at over $64 mill in cap space.  How would you feel about trading 1 Burfict for a long term Zeitler deal and stealing Ricky Wagner, a good youngish RT, away from the Ravens? and still having money for extensions of others and some more free agents.  That is what I mean by addition by subtraction.

And to head off the inevitable "you can't count on a draft pick to replace Burfict" defense... prove to me, right now, that you can count on Burfict not getting hurt and missing the season.  You can't, shit happens.  You do your research, plan accordingly and hope for the best. 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/luke-kuechly-9819/
http://overthecap.com/calculator/cincinnati-bengals/



I think you under estimate how much interest he would have.  The Cowboys would be a great landing spot for Burfict in a trade.  As a Cowboy he get's an auto pass for his behavior and the Cowboys get a true difference maker in a LB core that has none.  
The Cowboys are picking 28th and I would take that pick plus La'el Collins from them and feel pretty damn good about the deal. You could turn that 28th into Zach Cunningham and then Pick up Raekwon McMillan in the 2nd.  That's worth the risk to me.

Don't get me wrong, I would be all for trading the guy if we can get a 1st plus a player for him.  I just don't see anyone playing up that much.  You make valid points about not being able to trust the guy, though.  You have to figure that being in a contract year, he will probably show up in shape and have a monster year to get that big $ contract, and probably netting us a third round comp pick in the process.  Realistically, a third and some cap room this year isn't a bad deal.