Trumps Immigration Executive Order

[Belsnickel]

(01-31-2017, 12:57 PM)PDub80 Wrote: https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&rlz=1C1TIGY_enUS721US721&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=election+polls+wrong


I showed you mine ^

Now you show me yours. Multiple links showing the pre-election polls were right, please. If you don't have a ton (like I do), then probably best to realize you're uninformed and take a back seat at this point.

Let me just pull up one of the more well known polling sources, because quite frankly I don't have time to pull up all of the polls that would show you just how uninformed you are on this. Let's visit 538's page on the 2016 presidential race and look at the information Nate Silver, everybody's favorite pollster punching bag, actually collected over the course of the election: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Now, the second graphic down is interactive, as many of these are, and it shows a line graph of the polling information from 08 June. You can switch it to the popular vote, the third choice there, and you can move your cursor all along the line to see what the polling was like during that time frame. What do you notice? Well, the final popular vote results were 48.2% Clinton and 46.1% Trump. That is within the margin of error on the majority of the polls conducted during that time. Did the polling get it wrong, or were people interpreting the data incorrectly?

Oh, for shits and giggles, let's look at another site that compiles this information: http://www.270towin.com/2016-polls-clinton-trump/national/

Here are the national polls, all of them, conducted during the election season. I won't get into each state because, well, some states have shitty pollsters like Roanoke College that can't predict the weather right now by walking outside. But, most of these national polls are conducted by reputable and established pollsters. What do you notice about those numbers? You have to click "All" to see more of them, just in case you don't notice them. The numbers aren't that far off on the popular vote for most of these polls and they are, once again, within the margin of error for the majority of them.

I don't need more than the two links to show you how uninformed you are because I like to look at data collections like this. I'm a political junky and a numbers guy, so these statistics are my cup of tea. I love looking at these trends. The problem is that people like to tell you "numbers don't lie." But they do, all the time. When you look at these numbers you have to then interpret what they mean, because there is more to it than the numbers themselves. That is where things went wrong for the people doing this during the election cycle. So pull up all the links you want with people saying the polls were wrong, the fact is that the polls were right, it was the people that read into the numbers wrong.

So do yourself a favor and educate yourself a little on the topic at hand beyond reading headlines before trying to act like you just schooled someone. You'll embarrass yourself when you encounter someone that actually understands what they are talking about.