04-16-2017, 02:43 PM
Looks like Erdogan--Turkey's answer to Trump--is winning his referendum. That means Turkey will become a "presidential" rather than a "parliamentary" democracy, and in this case a step short of a Putinesque-style dictatorship.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/apr/16/turkey-referendum-recep-tayyip-erdogan-votes-presidential-powers
A “Yes” vote would replace Turkey’s parliamentary democracy with an all-powerful presidency and may see Erdogan in office until at least 2029, in the most radical change to the country’s political system in its modern history.
The outcome will also shape Turkey’s strained relations with the European Union. The NATO member state has curbed the flow of migrants - mainly refugees from wars in Syria and Iraq - into the bloc but Erdogan says he may review the deal after the vote.
This election map suggests there is a real urban/rural divide in the voting, blue state/red state style.
https://twitter.com/DiegoCupolo/status/853656578247077892/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Flive%2F2017%2Fapr%2F16%2Fturkey-referendum-recep-tayyip-erdogan-votes-presidential-powers.
I was prompted to this by B-Zona's post on the Syrian thread about Putin's overtures to Turkey, a desire to draw them out of the NATO orbit. Could be the Middle East be radically re-configuring again (the last time being in 2003-11)?
If Turkish voters perceive they are seen as "weak" and believe a strong man who won't back down will make them an Ottoman-level player on the world stage again, what might be the consequences for the US, and for US military bases there?
Hard to believe they would rather have poor Russians based there, and hard to believe they would leave the EU or NATO, but given this turn of events it is difficult to assume what they perceive to be in their national interest. When fear of weakness drives foreign policy the result is generally instability.
First consequence, perhaps, the Turkish dam against Syrian refugees could break, sending a bigger flood into Europe.
A farther consequence (along with closer ties to Putin) might be a move away from a secular state.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/apr/16/turkey-referendum-recep-tayyip-erdogan-votes-presidential-powers
A “Yes” vote would replace Turkey’s parliamentary democracy with an all-powerful presidency and may see Erdogan in office until at least 2029, in the most radical change to the country’s political system in its modern history.
The outcome will also shape Turkey’s strained relations with the European Union. The NATO member state has curbed the flow of migrants - mainly refugees from wars in Syria and Iraq - into the bloc but Erdogan says he may review the deal after the vote.
This election map suggests there is a real urban/rural divide in the voting, blue state/red state style.
https://twitter.com/DiegoCupolo/status/853656578247077892/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Flive%2F2017%2Fapr%2F16%2Fturkey-referendum-recep-tayyip-erdogan-votes-presidential-powers.
I was prompted to this by B-Zona's post on the Syrian thread about Putin's overtures to Turkey, a desire to draw them out of the NATO orbit. Could be the Middle East be radically re-configuring again (the last time being in 2003-11)?
If Turkish voters perceive they are seen as "weak" and believe a strong man who won't back down will make them an Ottoman-level player on the world stage again, what might be the consequences for the US, and for US military bases there?
Hard to believe they would rather have poor Russians based there, and hard to believe they would leave the EU or NATO, but given this turn of events it is difficult to assume what they perceive to be in their national interest. When fear of weakness drives foreign policy the result is generally instability.
First consequence, perhaps, the Turkish dam against Syrian refugees could break, sending a bigger flood into Europe.
A farther consequence (along with closer ties to Putin) might be a move away from a secular state.
![[Image: 4CV0TeR.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4CV0TeR.png)
