Making France Great Again?

[hollodero]

(04-22-2017, 03:38 PM)Dill Wrote: I would like to hear from someone in the forum who has a better grasp of the pros and cons of EU membership for individual nations, and France in particular.  What might be the consequences for France, Europe, and the US if FRance pulls out of the EU?

I can't really grasp it either. It's a black hole.

As for the obvious pros, we have lots of national states and fought in two world wars taking ground on our surface, leaving the continent devastated. The EU, and one should not lose focus on that, is first and foremost a peace project. The return to national states might lay the groundwork for new conflict.
Also, the continent is rich and we can't really tell why. Apart from US backing, it's the economy, the trade structures, and first and foremost it's education. As for economy, bigger goals are only to be achieved by working together, not so much by having smaller states trying their own strategy. See: Alternative energy, where after the US pulling out we have the historic chance to set the technological standards for centuries to come. Which needs working together (not least policy-wise) in a concentrated effort.
Then there's the currency. Our national currencies were very vulnerable for Singaporian (or other places') financial speculation. The Euro, despite lots of problems, did quite well in giving us stability and security. Including the still existing national currencies that are dependent on the Euro.
Last not least, it's also about freedom. Which comes with disadvantages too, some regions do not benefit, some people don't, especially lower educated people. They are not wanted anywhere and got great competition by Eastern European EU citizens who do jobs better for way less money. My home town, a classical "worker" town, is a good example for that, people took huge pay cuts or lost their jobs. The city is shrinking although Slovakians and others are streaming in. That they're not the biggest EU fans is understandable. 
For people with education, though, the EU means opportunity, and having opportunities is a strong motor. What could a chemist (or whoever) do in Austria, not so much. Now the world is open for him to do what he wants in some other EU country.

So there were some cons mentioned, there are obvious winners and losers. Low educated Western workers are big losers, and no one cares too much, and the support for right-wing parties is too often attributed to their inherent xenophobia alone. But the xenophobia roots in some very real disadvantages caused by open borders and open trade.
Another con, we have many poor countries that need to be bailed out. And that sure is frustrating, Greece (or Spain, Portugal, Italy...) got in trouble due to many factors, amongst the biggest ones is inability and corruption. When the German EU secessionist says this is BS and why would we be obliged to bail Greece out, there's not much to answer.
Another con is a missing pro, the EU isn't really democratic. If you believe it's democratic for you read that on wikipedia, it's pretty much an illusion. We vote for an EU parliament (that's the only handle we have), but the politicians we send there are not our best. Second grade, old, washed up, praised away. That's what the European people can do, vote for these guys in EU elections that are still strongly shaped by national issues. Policies are not made in the parliament. The EU is at the very best indirectly democratic, and even there you shouldn't look with a magnifying glass.
And the power of EU policy making is limited. For many decisions we still need universal agreeement from all countries. Therefore big changes are hardly happening, would take years to get through and would then be full of compromises (GB wants some fishing rights, Greece wants higher bailouts, Poland always wants something disgusting and Hungary is descended into alt-right hell already...). So what is happening is not really politics, but economic unity and a bunch af administrative BS. Brussels is called a juggernaut caring about the bending of cucumbers, the saying goes. People are not wrong there.

So jackpot question, what if France pulls out. The EU would pretty much be dead. We can stomach GB leaving, they weren't very helpful to begin with. France is essential, though. So what would happen probably would be the forming of some middle European block (Germany, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria and France if they want). A "core Europe". Eastern Europe would be pretty much left out and left for Putin to influence. The gap between rich and poor countries would widen, which again would lead to conflicts. Many would feel that regaining power over the borders, the policies, the economy, the currency would make the countries great again. For Germany, this could be true. For France, it's a tossup. Spain, Greeece, Italy etc. would be the losers. Eastern European countries would try their luck with Putin, the slow process of becoming more democratic would stall, corruption and autocratic structures would be daily routine. The small continent would be divided, and in the long run that can't be helpful to compete in the world.

But as more and more people say: An united Europe is desirable, the EU is not.

-- France won't pull out though, Le Pen isn't winning against Macron. Who is not so much right-wing, he's an EU friendly centrist. And in my personal opinion, the best candidate amongst the four.