Vegas odds are pretty telling

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-08-2017, 05:32 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: Not sure how much you can read into what Vegas thinks, but I found this interesting. The Bengals are projected to win 8.5 games which is tied for 14th best in the league, but our Super Bowl odds are 60/1, which is tied for 23rd with the Redskins. All of the other 5 teams projected to win 8.5 games have better SB odds than the Bengals, and 5 of the 13 teams projected to win fewer games also have better SB odds.

Make of that what you will.

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/5/1/15498624/2017-nfl-over-under-win-totals-cowboys-projected-win-nfc-east-giants-eagles-redskins
http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2017/5/7/15571864/post-draft-super-bowl-odds-vegas-has-cowboys-with-third-best-odds-patriots-raiders

This is why I am looking for a friend that will be in Vegas soon.  I don't trust the online sites for something like a futures bet.

A great deal of this is history.  Vegas never (at least not that I can remember) takes a 4 win team and makes it an 8 win team.  I am surprised that they even gave 8.5 wins as the over/under.  

The way I would wager is $100 to win the division, conference, and Super Bowl.  So, if you win the division, you already covered all your bets, and you could even "hedge" your bets a little at each game.  By this, I mean if you have 60-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, and you are already up for winning the division, you could wager against yourself in the first playoff game and each subsequent game at the payoffs from your early wagers will be so large.