05-10-2017, 11:52 PM
Hi everybody! So it's time for lowering expectations for out current rookies for their first year, and career overall. I know this sounds sad but this is more so people don't freak out over the contributions that players have or how many players become good players from this draft class. Remember that getting 4 players that are strong contributors is a FANTASTIC draft. So here we will make predictions, best case/worst case, and go over skill sets with various athletic scores. Now let's get started!
John Ross:
This is my favorite draft pick in the class. You'll see this from me in this pick and the next pick that the only way I see them bust is by not being on the field. But let's talk about the player. I have gone over a lot of things regarding his abilities on the field and the analytic scores behind it but I love the numbers and it keeps me really excited about him. Ross is not going to start until later this year, if at all. As a note, JUST BECAUSE HE WAS DRAFTED IN THE TOP 10 DOESN'T MEAN HE HAS TO BE A STARTER. Remember the draft is about long term investments and assets, not about immediate impact. That's free agency and trading.
Ross was the 2nd best WR in the draft behind Corey Davis. Besides being fast he is a relatively strong route runner, and tracks the ball INCREDIBLY in the air. He was the best ball tracking WR in the draft which is much better for deep balls than just speed. Think of watching Desean Jackson in his Eagles days mostly. He finds the ball in the air and adjusts to it with great vision.
![[Image: John-Ross-Reception-Perception-success-rate.png]](https://eu9vlzcrk8-flywheel.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/John-Ross-Reception-Perception-success-rate.png)
The green there shows routes that he has a high success rate compared to the success rate of other receivers. As you can see his successes come on routes that aren't just the go route, but also routes that involve selling deep. While any corner would be afraid of his speed, he has to be very good at selling it and making cuts to get open in those situations. He definitely needs to work on slant routes though as they are the 2nd most commonly run route by the Bengals besides comeback routes I would say.
Now for numbers! Ross posted the 3rd highest SPARQ score of any WR in the draft. It puts him in the 96th percentile of any WR in the league currently. He also posted a 97% playmaker score, which accounts for the fact he scored a touchdown on 4% of all of Washington's pass attempts for the year which is nutty. I know this sounds like bumpko numbers but playmaker score has been pretty indicative of general success by WRs. If you want to look more into it check the charts on here
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2014/playmaker-score-2014
He's an excellent redzone threat as shown here. Remember being great in the redzone is not necessarily about size, but route running and attacking the ball.
![[Image: C-gdZpnVYAAQfq3.jpg]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-gdZpnVYAAQfq3.jpg)
So now let's go over his usage with the team. In his first year, he will be considered our 4th wide receiver, but he will see about the 4th or 5th most targets behind AJ, Eifert, Gio, and possibly LaFell but that's more iffy. Where the team will have success is in rotation of our WRs. AJ will still naturally see 95% of the snaps on offense, but that other 5% the offense can still run smoothly. On the other side we can rotate Ross, LaFell, Boyd, and to a much lesser extent Malone as I imagine our offense will definitely be 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 RB. WR is also a very commonly injured position so we will still have depth as the season goes on. This will help everyone stay fresh and let the WRs still be excellent. So this year I would imagine around 30-40 receptions, 600 yards, and 3ish touchdowns.
In his 2nd year, LaFell will be gone. Ross is going to be on the outside as our #2 receiver and will keep that job as long as we have him or AJ goes elsewhere. That's all
Now for the bad scenario. Honestly I think Ross will be great. He's everything I want in a WR. His negatives that are listed on draft profiles are very stereotypical every WR negatives in terms of finding functional strength and working press coverage. Those are things that are developed by being in the NFL. You can't coach his speed, overall athleticism, and play. But if he does get hurt then it's unfortunate but we would just have to pray. That is the worst case scenario - leg injuries take him down more than they should. But as much as people complain about our medical team, we are one of the healthiest teams in the league regularly since we had an overhaul so i trust their evaluations on him. Best case scenario is he develops and plays like Desean Jackson.
PREDICTION: LONG TERM #2 RECEIVER
These are about to be a lot lazier. I love Ross and people were more divisive in terms of his ability
Joe Mixon:
I'm going to ignore the other things until the end because this is about football, and by all accounts Mixon was considered the best or 2nd best RB in the draft. He cuts so well, he has good vision, and can make plays that are not there. He truly is the quintessential RB in his ability to receive and run. If he is anything but a starter in the next 3 years there will be a severe problem. He will be the largest contributor as a rookie this year.
For his athletic scores, he actually didn't do the greatest. He had the 7th highest SPARQ score of RBs but actually only ranks in the 70th percentile of RBs in the NFL currently. This is still well above average but surprising overall. He does compare in scores to Ezekiel Elliot though. The worrisome part however is while his speed score ranks in the 91st percentile, he ranks <50th percentile in explosiveness scores and agility scores. Those 2 metrics are massively important to being a successful RB.
As for his rookie year, he's our starter and that's all. Like he's going to get a majority of touches and snaps. Hill is going to be relegated to not nearly as many touches as a short yardage back and goalline player. Gio will maintain as a spot runner and 3rd down back. Long term Mixon will be here to stay and be a good running back if his explosiveness and agility scores are not as indicative of future success. I do think he will be a great RB personally.
Worst case is he remains a piece of shit and does something that kicks him out of the NFL
PREDICTION: HIGH QUALITY STARTING RB FOR 6-8 YEARS
Jordan Willis:
Willis is probably my least favorite draft pick we made. He is a little stiff and has a lot to develop in terms of technique to be a consistent contributor. That said, he is hugely athletic so I understand the risk the Bengals made in the pick especially in the 3rd round. Yes I know he had a lot of production, but production =\= good tape. Nor does it mean disruption. It's why Michael Sam wasn't a good NFL player.
For his numbers, everyone knows how athletic he is. Ridiculous SPARQ scores and he ranks in the 97th percentile in athleticism in other EDGE players. He had a 93% SackSEER score which has been iffy on predictive success, but is still a solid score. It essentially predicts he will have about 23-24 sacks after 5 years which would be solid production, and I believe about where his career will end up.
For his rookie year, I don't think he will contribute much if at all. I think he'll be inactive for a lot of the season while he develops as a player. Long term he can be a rotational defensive end that might be able to become a low end starter. I believe his best case scenario is ending up the caliber of player that MJ is, with not the best production but enough to maintain a starting position. Worst case scenario is he doesn't develop upon his athleticism and goes a similar route to Margus Hunt.
PREDICTION: DOES NOT DO ANYTHING AND DOES NOT RECEIVE 2ND CONTRACT
Carl Lawson:
This is the pick I actually do like. Lawson is consistent player against the pass that only dropped due to injury issues. Against the run he could be better but he will be used as a pass rusher and not much more his first couple years. But overall I think he has a much better chance to become a starter than Jordan Willis long term.
Athletic score time. He ranked 13th in his SPARQ score which puts him in the 65th percentile of NFL players. It is worrisome that he had weak explosion workouts such as his broadjump and vertical jump. Those are hugely important workouts but long term injury recovery could have had an effect on his workout. He had a very poor SackSEER score of 27% and projected to only have 12 career sacks 5 years into his career.
Short term all I see is Lawson being a situational pass rusher for his first couple years as he develops as a run defender and allows Dunlap and MJ to take rests and possibly kick inside. Long term he can become a starter in terms of snaps but would not be a down 1 player. I believe his best case scenario is a player like Cameron Wake who he has been compared to before as a pass rusher, and not a great run defender also similar to Wake. Worst case scenario is he doesn't regain as much explosiveness and just isn't able to really produce.
PREDICTION: BECOMES LONG TERM ROTATIONAL PASS RUSHER THROUGH 2 CONTRACTS
The rest of the picks are more crapshoots so I'll just give quick predictions
Josh Malone - 4th or 5th receiver for his time here. Doesn't really do much besides fill in for injuries here and there
Ryan Glasgow - rotational DT for a few years. Does decently and moves on
Jake Elliot - He will kick
JJ Dielman - Swing linemen for a few years
Jordan Evans - Doesn't make team. Goes to PS or something
Brandon Wilson - Special teams cog for years
Mason Schrek - Doesn't make team
I'll patiently wait for people to say I wrote a nice piece even though no one read it. If you want anything on players I didn't go over or just want to ask questions or want to say my post was so bad it gave you cancer feel free
John Ross:
This is my favorite draft pick in the class. You'll see this from me in this pick and the next pick that the only way I see them bust is by not being on the field. But let's talk about the player. I have gone over a lot of things regarding his abilities on the field and the analytic scores behind it but I love the numbers and it keeps me really excited about him. Ross is not going to start until later this year, if at all. As a note, JUST BECAUSE HE WAS DRAFTED IN THE TOP 10 DOESN'T MEAN HE HAS TO BE A STARTER. Remember the draft is about long term investments and assets, not about immediate impact. That's free agency and trading.
Ross was the 2nd best WR in the draft behind Corey Davis. Besides being fast he is a relatively strong route runner, and tracks the ball INCREDIBLY in the air. He was the best ball tracking WR in the draft which is much better for deep balls than just speed. Think of watching Desean Jackson in his Eagles days mostly. He finds the ball in the air and adjusts to it with great vision.
The green there shows routes that he has a high success rate compared to the success rate of other receivers. As you can see his successes come on routes that aren't just the go route, but also routes that involve selling deep. While any corner would be afraid of his speed, he has to be very good at selling it and making cuts to get open in those situations. He definitely needs to work on slant routes though as they are the 2nd most commonly run route by the Bengals besides comeback routes I would say.
Now for numbers! Ross posted the 3rd highest SPARQ score of any WR in the draft. It puts him in the 96th percentile of any WR in the league currently. He also posted a 97% playmaker score, which accounts for the fact he scored a touchdown on 4% of all of Washington's pass attempts for the year which is nutty. I know this sounds like bumpko numbers but playmaker score has been pretty indicative of general success by WRs. If you want to look more into it check the charts on here
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2014/playmaker-score-2014
He's an excellent redzone threat as shown here. Remember being great in the redzone is not necessarily about size, but route running and attacking the ball.
So now let's go over his usage with the team. In his first year, he will be considered our 4th wide receiver, but he will see about the 4th or 5th most targets behind AJ, Eifert, Gio, and possibly LaFell but that's more iffy. Where the team will have success is in rotation of our WRs. AJ will still naturally see 95% of the snaps on offense, but that other 5% the offense can still run smoothly. On the other side we can rotate Ross, LaFell, Boyd, and to a much lesser extent Malone as I imagine our offense will definitely be 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 RB. WR is also a very commonly injured position so we will still have depth as the season goes on. This will help everyone stay fresh and let the WRs still be excellent. So this year I would imagine around 30-40 receptions, 600 yards, and 3ish touchdowns.
In his 2nd year, LaFell will be gone. Ross is going to be on the outside as our #2 receiver and will keep that job as long as we have him or AJ goes elsewhere. That's all
Now for the bad scenario. Honestly I think Ross will be great. He's everything I want in a WR. His negatives that are listed on draft profiles are very stereotypical every WR negatives in terms of finding functional strength and working press coverage. Those are things that are developed by being in the NFL. You can't coach his speed, overall athleticism, and play. But if he does get hurt then it's unfortunate but we would just have to pray. That is the worst case scenario - leg injuries take him down more than they should. But as much as people complain about our medical team, we are one of the healthiest teams in the league regularly since we had an overhaul so i trust their evaluations on him. Best case scenario is he develops and plays like Desean Jackson.
PREDICTION: LONG TERM #2 RECEIVER
These are about to be a lot lazier. I love Ross and people were more divisive in terms of his ability
Joe Mixon:
I'm going to ignore the other things until the end because this is about football, and by all accounts Mixon was considered the best or 2nd best RB in the draft. He cuts so well, he has good vision, and can make plays that are not there. He truly is the quintessential RB in his ability to receive and run. If he is anything but a starter in the next 3 years there will be a severe problem. He will be the largest contributor as a rookie this year.
For his athletic scores, he actually didn't do the greatest. He had the 7th highest SPARQ score of RBs but actually only ranks in the 70th percentile of RBs in the NFL currently. This is still well above average but surprising overall. He does compare in scores to Ezekiel Elliot though. The worrisome part however is while his speed score ranks in the 91st percentile, he ranks <50th percentile in explosiveness scores and agility scores. Those 2 metrics are massively important to being a successful RB.
As for his rookie year, he's our starter and that's all. Like he's going to get a majority of touches and snaps. Hill is going to be relegated to not nearly as many touches as a short yardage back and goalline player. Gio will maintain as a spot runner and 3rd down back. Long term Mixon will be here to stay and be a good running back if his explosiveness and agility scores are not as indicative of future success. I do think he will be a great RB personally.
Worst case is he remains a piece of shit and does something that kicks him out of the NFL
PREDICTION: HIGH QUALITY STARTING RB FOR 6-8 YEARS
Jordan Willis:
Willis is probably my least favorite draft pick we made. He is a little stiff and has a lot to develop in terms of technique to be a consistent contributor. That said, he is hugely athletic so I understand the risk the Bengals made in the pick especially in the 3rd round. Yes I know he had a lot of production, but production =\= good tape. Nor does it mean disruption. It's why Michael Sam wasn't a good NFL player.
For his numbers, everyone knows how athletic he is. Ridiculous SPARQ scores and he ranks in the 97th percentile in athleticism in other EDGE players. He had a 93% SackSEER score which has been iffy on predictive success, but is still a solid score. It essentially predicts he will have about 23-24 sacks after 5 years which would be solid production, and I believe about where his career will end up.
For his rookie year, I don't think he will contribute much if at all. I think he'll be inactive for a lot of the season while he develops as a player. Long term he can be a rotational defensive end that might be able to become a low end starter. I believe his best case scenario is ending up the caliber of player that MJ is, with not the best production but enough to maintain a starting position. Worst case scenario is he doesn't develop upon his athleticism and goes a similar route to Margus Hunt.
PREDICTION: DOES NOT DO ANYTHING AND DOES NOT RECEIVE 2ND CONTRACT
Carl Lawson:
This is the pick I actually do like. Lawson is consistent player against the pass that only dropped due to injury issues. Against the run he could be better but he will be used as a pass rusher and not much more his first couple years. But overall I think he has a much better chance to become a starter than Jordan Willis long term.
Athletic score time. He ranked 13th in his SPARQ score which puts him in the 65th percentile of NFL players. It is worrisome that he had weak explosion workouts such as his broadjump and vertical jump. Those are hugely important workouts but long term injury recovery could have had an effect on his workout. He had a very poor SackSEER score of 27% and projected to only have 12 career sacks 5 years into his career.
Short term all I see is Lawson being a situational pass rusher for his first couple years as he develops as a run defender and allows Dunlap and MJ to take rests and possibly kick inside. Long term he can become a starter in terms of snaps but would not be a down 1 player. I believe his best case scenario is a player like Cameron Wake who he has been compared to before as a pass rusher, and not a great run defender also similar to Wake. Worst case scenario is he doesn't regain as much explosiveness and just isn't able to really produce.
PREDICTION: BECOMES LONG TERM ROTATIONAL PASS RUSHER THROUGH 2 CONTRACTS
The rest of the picks are more crapshoots so I'll just give quick predictions
Josh Malone - 4th or 5th receiver for his time here. Doesn't really do much besides fill in for injuries here and there
Ryan Glasgow - rotational DT for a few years. Does decently and moves on
Jake Elliot - He will kick
JJ Dielman - Swing linemen for a few years
Jordan Evans - Doesn't make team. Goes to PS or something
Brandon Wilson - Special teams cog for years
Mason Schrek - Doesn't make team
I'll patiently wait for people to say I wrote a nice piece even though no one read it. If you want anything on players I didn't go over or just want to ask questions or want to say my post was so bad it gave you cancer feel free
