The Trump Road Tour--Arabia, Israel, Europe

[Dill]

(05-22-2017, 12:18 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: I was reading an article that interviewed some people in the Middle East regarding Trump's speech. There seems to be relief on the softening of the rhetoric, they like that he's saying he wants to step away from their affairs, but then many just see it as business. Boosting the power of the Saudi Royal family and an wallet of the U.S.

Also, given the source of funding for terrorism that is Saudi Arabia, I find it interesting that he focused on Iran as doing these things while standing in Riyadh.

All in all, I had a low bar of not being too offensive, and he met that for me. So, yay?

The Iran comments were very troubling for me. I am concerned that he might be creating pretexts for scotching the Iran deal. That would ramp up regional tensions, and I am pretty sure Iran would respond by saying "no more negotiations, sanction us all you want." And then build a bomb. They could do it inside a year, if they decided, and no one could stop them. Then the Saudis would have to have one.

Other fallout would be that after the painstaking work of getting France, GB, Russia and China to all cooperate, they too would have had enough. The US would be branded an unreliable partner.  This would make America great for Trump's base, but not for the rest of the world in which the US economy is embedded.

The Iran comments could have been just talk for the base. A lot of tough sounding words would keep them on board while the adults in the room would keep him signing off on confirmations Iran is keeping its word.  But it is hard to tell how the talk will affect real players in the Middle East, including the Iranian leadership.

Finally, people in the region know where Salafists got the funding to expand. Egypt is the largest Arab country, and while many there will cheer the US backing of Saudis, they will also understand the intimate connection between SAUDI financing and groups the US calls terrorists.  Particularly troubling for many Sunnis will be the Saudi agreement to designate Hamas a terrorist group.  For moderate or "liberal" forces in Egypt, Iran, Lebanon, and Jordan, I don't see how any of this could be good news. The US is again on the side of dictators, not democracy.  That makes me wonder if the new Saudi/US initiatives for combating terror financing and social media will work since the new configuration of alliances seems to strengthen one of the primary social forces that produced terrorism in the first place.

So strange--the only Trump advisors I would rate as competent enough to understand risks in the Middle East are Military or Intel. That means Trump will be hearing fewer competently formulated policy alternatives for the region as the political terrain shifts over the next three months.