Population

[Benton]

(07-16-2017, 10:11 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: To the first bold from 2000-2010... +1.3% (Japan) vs +9.7% (US) is pretty different.

2010-2016, Japan has actually went down an estimated 1m in population while the US has gone up an estimated 15m. Granted over 10 years, that 15m would be on pace for a 25m growth, which would be +8.1%, which is less than the 9.7% of the previous decade. Still it is a pretty big increase and 25m people is 25m people.

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To the second bold, your 3.16 and 3.76 numbers are actually the average number of people per family.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/183657/average-size-of-a-family-in-the-us/

The key word being *per family*. Most of the numbers you find will be per family/couple/household. The decline of the two-parent household and massive increase in divorce would account for that number shrinking.

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As for immigration:
http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/frequently-requested-statistics-immigrants-and-immigration-united-states/#CurrentHistoricalNumbers

Has it at 1.38m in 2015, and 1.36m in 2014.

Considering earlier I did the math that 2010-2020 we could expect a rough estimate of a 25m population increase in the US, at ~1.3m/yr, that would account for 13m of the 25m increase. That's not counting the 13m people's children during those 10 years.

According to that link, Mexico apparently got surpassed in the yearly #'s by India and China since 2013.

To the first: I don't see it as that much of a difference percentage wise. I'll agree to disagree.

To the second: Eh, I don't follow. I don't think there's a decline in two-parent households, as many times parents remarry. It makes itdifficult to get good numbers as sometimes divorced families remarry multiple times. But in the end, the shrinking households is due to women having fewer children. That's largely because more women are working, have access to birth control and have more education.

http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2015/05/07/family-size-among-mothers/

Quote:In the late 1970s, the average mother at the end of her childbearing years had given birth to more than three children. Since that time, average family size has declined, driven largely by declines in families with four or more children. Now, moms have 2.4 children on average – a number that has been fairly stable for two decades.

In 1976, four-in-ten mothers ages 40 to 44 had four or more children. One-fourth had three children, and a similar share (24%) had two children. Only 11% of mothers at the end of their childbearing years had had only one child.

Flash forward to 2014, and the situation has changed dramatically. The once-dominant four-child family has been replaced by the two-child family. A plurality (41%) of moms at the end of their childbearing years now report having two kids, while just 14% have four or more children. Meanwhile, the share of mothers at the end of their childbearing years who have one child has doubled – from 11% to 22%. As has been the case for many decades, about one-fourth of mothers have three children (24%).

I understand the scarecrow of irresponsible people popping out child after child. It happens. But — by and large — people are having fewer children.

Thirdly, I'm not really following, but that's ok. I'm not super concerned about it. Migration — illegal and otherwise — has been going down since the economy went to crap. And it will likely continue as economies in other contries grow and ours is (likely) heading for another recession. Which is my biggest point with immigration: we've got much bigger fish to fry.