Nancy Pelosi is too far Right for the Democrat base

[BmorePat87]

(09-21-2017, 12:04 AM)bfine32 Wrote: So we'll take your estimate of about 120,000. How many member of White Supremacist organizations do you think voted and do you think either was a voting base?

120,000 is 15% of the nearly 800,000 DACA recipients, so that would not be my estimate. You're taking me saying "far less than 1%" and making it 1% and then taking the nearly 12 million illegal immigrant estimate and going off that, which would be flawed methodology. 

What we know about non citizen voting stems from state investigations into whether or not voters were citizens (legal or not). Michigan investigated 9 people out of 2.9m ballots cast but didn't bring any charges. New Mexico identified 9 out of 1.2m voters who may not be citizens. Ohio said that 44 may have voted at some point between 2000-2012. 

Let's take Ohio and round that number up to 10 per election since some may have voted more than once. 10 of Ohio's 523,000 non citizen residents. If I make them representative of the 22,000,000 non citizens in the US, that's roughly 421 votes per election. Let's say all 44 voted in all election, that's 1850 or so. Illegal immigrants account for half of non citizens, so they may have voted in numbers ranging between 210-925. DACA recipients are 7% of the illegal immigrant population, so 15 to 60 votes there?

So 0.0019% to 0.008% would be my "far less than 1%" number accounting for a range of 15-60 votes, maybe. 

The biggest flaw in my methodology is assuming non citizen voting is representative of legal status. I think it's far more likely to suggest that it's easier to register to vote, whether accidentally or not, when you are legal. Would likely skew the numbers of illegals lower, maybe higher for DACA people, but from 15-60 to the thousands is unlikely.  


There are an estimated 5000 Klan members and the largest Neo Nazi group has 2500 members as of 2011. Let's round that up to 8000 knowing we're not accounting for the visible rise in their activity (which would likely mean rise in their membership) or true membership in other Neo Nazi groups. We're also leaving out White Nationalists. A recent WaPo/ABC poll found that 9% of Americans (or 22m) think these views are acceptable. It's hard truly gauge support, so we're just going off membership. Let's apply 98% of citizens who are eligible to vote and 65% of white people who voted. That's about 5,100, but it can range much higher if we are to accept the results of ABC's poll. Even just interpreting  5% of the acceptable responses as  agreeing with those beliefs puts us at 1 million likely voters.  

An argument could be made that White Nationalists constitute a base. DACA recipients? I couldn't call a number less than the amount of kids I teach in a day a "base".