The US just recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital

[Bengalzona]

(12-06-2017, 09:38 PM)Sociopathicsteelerfan Wrote: This.  We've been trying the same bullshit for close to eighty years with zero progress.  Something drastic needs to be done.  You're never going to convince religious zealots with logic and you'll never get them to compromise.  You have to "hurt" them and show zero tolerance for their crap.  Unfortunately, all the Arab world seems to respect is strength and those unabashed at wielding it with impunity.

Early on, we were pretty wise and just stayed out of the whole mess. Until the 1967 war. That was when we figured out that Israel would be a great proxy against the Soviets. The best proxy. You've never seen a proxy like this!

But seriously, they were a great proxy. In 1967, they were able to whip up on the Arab League and their Soviet-supplied 'modern' weapons with only a hodgepodge of outdated western weapons, some of which were World War II-era. That got our attention.

The Soviets had spent much of the 50's through 80's selling their weapons throughout the world to earn much-needed income (in case anyone ever wondered how those AK's and RPG's got scattered throughout the world). We figured (rightly so) that we could supply Israel with our modern weapons and train them in our tactics and really make the Soviet weapons and tactics the Arabs were using look trashy to countries trading in arms.

The Israelis got modern weapons and, thereby, greater security. Meanwhile, we hit the Soviets where it hurt the most (their pocketbook) without firing a shot. It's too bad Nixon was such an paranoid, insecure crook, because his admin really knew how to play international politics. They laid the roots for taking down the Soviet Union long before Reagan came to power.

But Israel was even more important to us than just as place to show off our arms and tactics to the world market. Israel was the 'Casablanca' of the Cold War. If you are Jewish, you are allowed duel-citizenship with whatever country you are from and with Israel. The two countries with the largest Jewish populations outside of Israel during the Cold War? The U.S. and the Soviet Union. Israel was able to take advantage of this. All throughout the Cold War, Israelis were able to come and go at will from the Soviet Union and the U.S. as both countries honored the dual citizenship. The true value of the Mossad was not just that they were effective infiltrating Arab countries (they were). The true value to us is that they could get human intell inside the Soviet Union, not something that we were good at during the Cold War. We were more concentrated on mechanical means of gaining intelligence. By the early 70's we were realizing that that alone wasn't enough. And not only were the Israelis able to come and go from the Soviet Union, they also had Jewish individuals in high positions in the U.S.S.R. (as they do here). In short, they had what we needed. A match made in Heaven.

But even in the 70's, we still didn't want to get involved with the Palestinians and trying to solve the "Two State" solution. We were trying to broker peace treaties with Israel and its Arab neighbors without tackling the Palestinian issue. And with the Camp David Accord, it was starting to work. That would change in 1982 when Israel invaded Southern Lebanon to get at the PLO they were sheltering. This was a development that could rile the Arab League back into action and restart the larger wars there we were trying to stop. This is how our Marines ended up in Lebanon and how many died in a suicide attack on their barracks in 1983. That was the point when we began to see the Palestinian issue as being an important piece in the Middle East Peace jigsaw puzzle.

The Reagan Admin couldn't do much because they had their hands full with other issues around the world (Soviets, Afghanistan, Iran-Contras, Drug War, etc.). They did try to initiate some talks. The same happened during the first Bush admin (Gulf War). The first admin which really had a chance to make headway on the issue was the Clinton Admin. Things had settled down enough in other parts of the world for us to begin to look seriously for an answer. And, surprisingly enough, the Palestinians were pretty receptive. The Clinton Admin helped broker the Oslo Accords and it was really starting to look like there could actually be a path for the Two State solution.

Unfortunately, the nascent Palestinian Authority was not able to keep all of the Palestinians under a central control (they were also hindered by the fact that the Palestinian populations were divided between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, geographically separated areas). Hamas broke off and began suicide bomb and rocket attacks against Israel. Israel responded to these attacks and the peace process was forgotten. Because of the situation there, neither the second Bush nor the Obama admins could do much there.

And that leads us to Trump. Netanyahu has long maintained that they had to play 'hard' with the Palestinians to get them to the table. The Obama Admin tried to play a "good cop, bad cop" routine with the Palestinians to get them to the table ("We know Netty is mean and all, but we're your buddies. Come and sit at the table and we'll help you talk to this guy"). It was worth a try, but they didn't bite. After attempting that, an admin can't 'go back to the drawing room' and come up with a different approach. You sort of have to remain consistent in your approach.

That leaves the door open for Trump to try the new approach. And for all of his faults, he actually may be the right guy in the right pace at the right time to do this. It will not happen overnight. But if he can just get the Palestinians to the table, more than half the battle is won. And this would be a MASSIVE coup for his embattled and unpopular admin. Honestly, I wish him well and I hope that it works.