New Poll Shows Dems' Mammoth Congressional Lead for 2018 Has Disappeared

[BmorePat87]

(02-01-2018, 12:53 PM)Belsnickel Wrote: They can, and often individual state polls are done. But, the modeling for the presidential election polling hasn't been set up to really focus on that. With this being only the, what, third time a POTUS won the election but lost the popular vote it just hasn't been a scenario that they have designed their modeling for, plus it would require much more collaboration between polling firms (not likely) to share data and make it all work out.

We'll continue to see the focus on popular results rather than electoral, but there has been discussion in the community about how we can account for these things, with no real solutions. I've actually read academic journal articles on this because, well, I'm a nerd.

And this is the issue with doing the same for a Congressional election. Republicans got 1% more of the popular vote of all Congressional races combined, but that translated into a difference of +47 seats compared to Democrats, or about 10% of seats.