The Serious Foreign Policy Thread--Bolton Cleans House

[Dill]

(03-14-2018, 10:19 PM)hollodero Wrote: No he does not. Don't project your view of him on the world.

@topic I know that could become an annoying pet subject of mine, but isn't it strange that Russia used a nerve agent that could clearly and unambiguously be traced back to them? Why is there no attempt at secrecy. I think that's a question worth considering.

As for the US, we know by now where Trump's allegiances lie and that it's not with the rest of the so-called "free world".

The last is the question troubling the intel services of every NATO country right now, not to mention China and the Ukraine.

Let me toss out two hypotheses, neither of which I find especially convincing.

1. There is a crack in the Russian monolith. Someone in the state allowed the nerve agent to be deployed to weaken Putin. The attacks are a kind of false flag operation. (Though, if this were the case, I would expect Putin to exhibit more curiosity and work harder with the Brits to resolve this.)

2. Putin ordered the recent attacks in the UK. They are meant to shore up control within Russia (death to traitors wherever), and/or to intimidate and bring disarray to NATO and the EU. Sanctions may be pushing Putin to this risk. Normally, one would expect this to unite the West in a swift response--diplomatic expulsions, heavier sanctions, military red lines, a well-defined next level of escalation for all NATO members.  But it has to be clear to the intel services of all advanced nations that US foreign policy is aimless, subject to the president's uninformed and autocratic whims.  This to some degree paralyzes NATO. Individual European states must step into the vacuum of US leadership, since a coordinated, determined US-led response is unlikely. And that will look messy. The worst-case scenario is that Trump really is a Russian asset, willing or unwilling. It has looked that way until now. Even if he is not, nothing we have seen in the last three years suggests he could successfully lead an effective diplomatic-military counterattack, should he want to.

I am not wholly satisfied with 2, because of the apparent risk it poses to Putin of still worse sanctions and far worse economic and political isolation. It has me wondering if Putin's judgment is that bad. Has he misjudged our weakness, or does he understand better than we do what happens when the hegemon abdicates leadership or is incapable of it?

Unlike the invasion of Georgia and the occupation of Crimea, the UK attacks seem unprovoked. They don't appear clearly in the Russian national interest. Has the pressure of sanctions been enough to rock the Russian state in ways apparent to Putin but not to us yet? Is this more about risk to Putin's control and legacy than the good of the nation (as Russians would understand it?) 


PS LOL I think we can assume Manafort will not flip now.